2008 SEC College Football Preview

The Southeastern Conference has provided the last two National Champions and 2008 promises to be real exciting. No other conference has as many quality coaches, Alabama's Nick Saban, Florida's Urban Meyer, LSU's Les Miles, South Carolina's Steve Spurrier, Tennessee's Phillip Fulmer. No other conference has the strength in depth of quality teams and no other conference has as many heated rivalries.

The SEC should provide two tight division races this season that will go down to the wire. And once again the conference promises to have at least two teams finish in the top ten, with one of the teams going on to compete for the national title.

The SEC is extending itself this year with the big boys playing some huge non-conference games, but the best from the conference will still come down to the league schedule.

Top Ten SEC Games 1. Florida vs. Georgia, Nov. 1 2. LSU at Auburn, Sept. 20 3. Florida at Tennessee, Sept. 20 4. LSU at Florida, Oct. 11 5. Georgia at LSU, Oct. 25 6. Tennessee at Georgia, Oct. 11 7. Georgia at Auburn, Nov. 15 8. Auburn at Alabama, Nov. 29 9. Alabama at LSU, Nov. 8 10. Alabama at Georgia, Sept. 27

Top Ten Non-Conference Games 1. Auburn at West Virginia, Oct. 23 2. Georgia at Arizona State, Sept. 20 3. Alabama vs. Clemson, Aug. 30 4. Florida at Florida State, Nov. 29 5. Miami at Florida, Sept. 6 6. Georgia Tech at Georgia, Nov. 29 7. South Carolina at Clemson, Nov. 29 8. Arkansas at Texas, Sept. 13 9. Tennessee at UCLA, Sept. 1 10. Kentucky at Louisville, Aug. 30

East Division
Florida - Have a realistic chance of going unbeaten and walking away with a National Title. Getting Ole Miss from the West is offset by the home date against LSU, while the non-conference schedule is easier than it appears on paper. In SEC play it's all about the East, and if the Gators can get by their early showdown at Tennessee it all opens up with South Carolina and Kentucky going to The Swamp.

15-4 ATS in non-conference action coming off a strong offensive performance in which they scored 55 points or more. 1-9 ATS as a road favorite off a win.

Georgia - The Dawgs chances of being a contender could be decided by as early as week four with road trips to South Carolina and Arizona State and a home date against two-time defending MAC champion Central Michigan. The inter division draw couldn't be any worse than facing Alabama and going on the road to play LSU and Auburn with both Tiger games book ending a brutal four-week stretch of at LSU, Florida, at Kentucky, at Auburn. If Georgia can get through their schedule with just one blemish, the Dawgs will truly have earned a spot in the national title game.

23-42-3 ATS at home in Athens coming off a SU and ATS win. In this situation off a point spread win of more than 10 points, the Bulldogs crash to 5-22-3 ATS. 4-26 O/U since 2000 off a SU win of 21 or more points.

Kentucky - The Wildcats aren't going to be as good as last year and given their joke of a non-conference schedule, they will start the season either 4-0 or 3-1. This may just offer some line value in the early conference games. Avoiding LSU and Auburn from the West is a plus, but given Kentucky's back-heavy slate getting the Gators, Vols, and Georgia from October 25th on, an 8-4 season would represent a commendable effort.

20-36-1 ATS as a SEC dog of +7 or less.
South Carolina - It doesn't get any simpler than this ... win early or it could be an ugly year. The Gamecocks see three of their last five dates with LSU and Tennessee at home and Florida and Clemson on the road. Outside of the trip to The Swamp, the SEC road slate is a relative breeze going to Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and Kentucky.

20-13-2 ATS under head coach Spurrier, including 10-3 ATS on the road. 9-25 O/U on the road since 2001.

Tennessee - The Vols season hinges on how they come out of their top-heavy early schedule. Trips to UCLA, Auburn and Georgia and a home date with Florida fill two-thirds of Tennessee's first six games. Going unbeaten through the remainder of the schedule, Mississippi State, Alabama, at South Carolina, Wyoming, at Vanderbilt and Kentucky to finish determines if a bowl invitation comes their way.
14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS coming off a double-digit SU loss. 2-10 ATS (L12) as home favorites of -7 or less points.

Vanderbilt - Vandy are a long way from being competitive in the SEC East. Road trips to Ole Miss and Mississippi State from the West is a nice break in the first half of the season. But Vanderbilt's problem's come in the back half of the year with no gimme November home games playing Florida and Tennessee to go with two tough road games at Kentucky and Wake Forest.
21-35-1 ATS at home vs. an opponent that enters off a straight up loss.

West Division
Alabama - On paper at least, Alabama will have a winning season and end their season with a bowl game. That is mainly due to a powder puff non-conference schedule against Tulane, Arkansas State and Western Kentucky. Throw in home dates against Kentucky, Ole Miss and Mississippi State and you see what I mean. Nasty games vs. Clemson (played in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta), at Arkansas, at Georgia, at Tennessee, at LSU and hosting Auburn will prevent the Crimson Tide going on a big streak of wins.

30-13-1 ATS as dogs off a SU win. 2-14-1 ATS as a home favorite vs. a conference foe.

Arkansas - A .500 season or one game above or below beckons for Bobby Petrino's troops in his first season. Starting off against Western Illinois and UL Monroe will give the Razorbacks time to prepare for the road trip to Texas and the SEC opener against Alabama. Life gets tougher with the first two dates in October, hosting Florida and visiting Auburn. After those two the schedule lightens up with just two tough tilts against South Carolina in Columbia and a season ending game against LSU in Little Rock.

12-4 ATS at home coming off a straight up conference loss.

Auburn - The Tigers have plenty of big-time games, but luckily, almost all of them are at home. Going on the road to face West Virginia in a mid-season Thursday night game is the only road date problem until the season-ender at Alabama. LSU, Tennessee and Georgia are all good enough to win the SEC title, but they're all coming to Jordan-Hare. A successful season beckons for Auburn as they catch a favorable schedule with it all ending with a top two finish in the West and a bowl invitation. One must doff their cap to Auburn for going to Morgantown to face the Mountaineers in the last weekend in October.

14-4 ATS their last 18 as an underdog, including a more recent 8-1 ATS. 9-22 O/U as underdogs, including 3-10 O/U in their last 13 on the road.

LSU - Division aspirations may be decided as early as week four with a visit to Auburn. The defending national champions don't get much of a break from the SEC scheduling gods having to travel to Florida and South Carolina before hosting Georgia in Death Valley. Get through those three, and the end of October, with just one loss, and the national title could be there for the taking with a manageable November facing Tulane, Alabama, Ole Miss and a road trip to Arkansas.

12-7-1 ATS as a double-digit road favorite since 1988 season. 3-13 ATS as home favorites of -14.5 to -21 points.

Ole Miss - Depending on the outcome in week two when the Rebels travel to Winston-Salem (Wake Forest), Houston Nutt's boys could just be 4-0 or 3-1. Then comes a road trip to Florida, before the defining part of the Rebels schedule with South Carolina, Auburn and Mississippi State coming to Oxford. With only five road games, this could be the year the Rebels turn into an SEC factor again.

1-16-1 ATS at home vs. opponents off a DD loss. 6-17 O/U off a home loss.

Mississippi State - Overall the Bulldogs schedule isn't that bad getting what can be best described as a 'walk in the park' of a non-conference schedule and dates with Vanderbilt and Kentucky from the East. Three killer road dates, at Georgia Tech, at LSU, and at Tennessee, all before the end of October will makes life hard to improve on last season's breakthrough campaign.

6-12 ATS coming off two or more straight up wins vs. an opponent off a DD loss.

CONFERENCE TREND: SEC conference games played in the first three weeks of the season are 8-20-1 O/U since 2004 and are presently on a 4-14 O/U run.

CONFERENCE SERIES TRENDS:

ALABAMA vs. AUBURN: The underdog is 18-9 ATS in this series since 1980, including 4-0 ATS off a loss as a favorite.

AUBURN vs. LSU: 0-7 O/U in the last 7 meetings since 2000. The average combined points is only 29.3 points in those last 7 meetings.

AUBURN vs. GEORGIA: Auburn are 9-1 ATS when playing with revenge against Georgia.

GEORGIA vs. FLORIDA: The Cocktail Party rivalry has been a very unpleasant experience for Georgia who has lost 15 of 17, covering a mere five times. The favorite is 1-4-1 ATS the last six years. Since 2002 five games have been decided by a touchdown or less. The straight winner is 21-3-1 ATS in the last quarter century.

LSU vs. ALABAMA: The host is 5-10 SU and 2-12 ATS since 1992.

LSU vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE: The Bayou Bengals are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS. NOTE: Those eight wins came by an average of 30.6 points per game.

SOUTH CAROLINA vs. GEORGIA: The UNDER is 11-0 in the L11 games since 1996. The average OU line in this series has been 44.5 in those eleven meetings. And the average points scored in those games is an EXTREMELY low 27.8 points.

VANDERBILT vs. ALABAMA: The Commodores are 0-13 SU but 10-3 ATS in L13 games.

VANDERBILT vs. SOUTH CAROLINA: South Carolina is 13-2 SU and 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 meetings against the Commodores.

VANDERBILT vs. GEORGIA: The Commodores are 1-11-1 SU and 4-9 ATS at home versus Georgia.