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ACC Tournament Preview

Matt Baiungo
Matt Baiungo

In the 2003-2004 Station Casino's NFL Football Challenge, Matt won the last four week's contest with a 15-5 ATS record and collected his share of the $10,000 prize. Numerous documented Top 10 finishes in all sports also appear on this handicapper's impressive resume.
By:Matt Baiungo     Date: Mar 10, 2008
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The 55th annual ACC men’s basketball tournament will begin on Thursday, March 13th and run through Sunday, March 16th. This year’s tournament will be held in Charlotte, North Carolina with all games being played on the home floor of the Charlotte Bobcats. All 12 ACC teams will participate with the top 4 seeds, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, and Virginia Tech getting a bye in the first round.

For the other 8 teams, that means they’ll need to win 4 consecutive games in order to win the tournament. And that is no easy task. Let’s take a closer look, and give you a little ACC tournament primer. The teams are listed according to their seed.

1. North Carolina: The Tar Heels earned the #1 seed after winning at Duke on Saturday night. NC has the complete package; excellent point guard play with Ty Lawson, great perimeter shooting with Wayne Ellington, a monster inside game with Tyler Hansbrough, a good defense, and they hit their free throws (76.1%). They only have 2 losses on the year and they both came at home in conference play to Maryland and Duke. The obvious team to beat, but it should be noted that they were only 3-4 ATS as a road favorite in conference play.

2. Duke: The team everybody loves to hate (me included), just continues to win. The Dukies have been ultra impressive this year considering their youth, as just one starter is a senior. All 5 starters also average double digits in scoring. But their biggest strength is on the defensive end where they are #2 in conference efficiency. It has been a tale of two seasons in conference play for Duke. They went 8-0-1 ATS over their first nine games, but since then, they’ve gone 1-6-1 to the spread. No doubt they can win this, but their youth and lack of an inside game might prevent it.

3. Clemson: This team has a ton of talent, but their fast non-conference starts tail off when conference play begins. But they haven’t faded as much as in the past after going 10-6 in conference play. The Tigers can beat both of the top seeds, but they can also lose to the lower tier teams. You just never know what kind of performance you’re going to get out of them. Clemson is also the worst free throw shooting team in the ACC at 59.1% which is not a good trait to have in tournament games.

4. Virginia Tech: At 18-12 and squarely on the bubble, Tech will be playing for an NCAA bid. They’ll need to win a couple of games, but it won’t be easy. Believe it or not, the Hokies own the best defense in the conference according to efficiency numbers. But at the same time, they are also the worst offensive team in the conference. So that means they’ll be in lower scoring games which is usually a benefit in tournament games. And their defense may get them past their quarterfinal game, but don’t expect much after that.

5. Miami Florida: The Hurricanes are quietly having an overall good season record wise at 21-9, but 8 of those losses have come in conference play with 6 of them coming on the road. So asking them to win 4 straight here is just asking for way too much. The Canes are also looking to play themselves into an NCAA bid, but they need more of a team effort. Junior guard Jack McClinton is the only starter averaging over 10 points per game, and it’s the main reason Miami has been held to 70 points or less 12 times this year. They still could get to the semifinals.

6. Maryland: After looking like a sure-fire NCAA tournament team, Maryland has tanked over their last 7 games. The Terrapins have gone 2-5 over that stretch while covering just one point spread. This team is capable though as they did win at tough road venues like North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest. Gary Williams will have to do one heck of a coaching job over the next few days to get this group back on track. They need a good showing to get an at-large NCAA bid, and their road to the semifinals is not all that difficult.

7. Georgia Tech: This team plays erratic basketball on offense. They take a ton of bad shots, but right now they are in a nice groove. They’ve scored 74 points or more while winning and covering 3 of their last 4 games. Two of the wins came against Clemson and Wake, so the Yellow Jackets should not be overlooked. They own the best perimeter defense in the ACC holding opponents to just 29% and that will allow them to hang around with the better teams. So it’s of no surprise that they are 10-6 ATS as an underdog this year. If they survive round one, Tech loses to Duke in round two.

8. Wake Forest: This could be the sleeper team in this tournament. The Demon Deacons are extremely young, and they’ve certainly taken their lumps this year. But they are extremely talented and should get by the first round which will set them up with a game against UNC. Their free throw shooting needs improvement (66%), and it’s cost them many close games. Of their 12 overall losses, Wake has lost 8 of them by 8 points or less. Dark horse to make some noise.

9. Florida St: Another middle of the road ACC team that is coming into the tournament with a bit of confidence. The Seminoles are 4-1 their last 5 games (3-1-1 ATS), but they get a bad draw with Wake Forest. Wake swept the two meetings this year while shooting 50% from the floor and from behind the arc. Florida St’s offense is not good as they are next to last in the conference in efficiency and dead last in assists. They simply cannot match points with the higher scoring teams, and most likely will be gone after one game.

10. Virginia: As Sean Singletary goes, Virginia goes. Singletary is a one-man wrecking crew averaging almost 20 points per game. But unfortunately, he doesn’t get much help from his teammates. And in bad Singletary games, this team has virtually no chance of winning. The Cavaliers are in good current form having won 4 of their last 6 while covering 5 of those games. Expect a close game with Georgia Tech as one game went to overtime and the other was decided by a bucket.

11. Boston College: Aside for Tyrese Rice, Eagles head coach Al Skinner doesn’t have much to work with. BC enters this tournament on a massive slide having lost 14 of their last 17 games including 6 straight. They won only a single road conference game, and that was way back in December at Maryland. Guess that’s a good thing because they will face Maryland in the first round. Even if BC got past Maryland, they would then face Clemson who beat them by 22 points.

12. NC State: Losers of 8 straight games, NC State has little hope of turning things around and making a run in this tournament. They play no defense, and they’ve allowed 79.5 points per game over their current losing streak. The Wolfpack does shoot the long ball well as they have the best 3-point shooting attack in the conference hitting 39.7%, but they are also the league’s worst allowing 41.7% from 3-point land. One and done.


 

  Matty Baiungo

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