AFC Wild Card Jacksonville/Pittsburgh Analysis

The AFC Wild Card Playoff start today with the Jacksonville Jaguars who hope to become an NFL Playoff Picks team when they travel North to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jacksonville comes into this one winning six of seven before losing a meaningless game last week and has no fear as they were the only team this season to beat the Steelers at home and outgained them 421-217 yards. The Jaguars have also held the opposition below 150 passing yards in four straight games. The Jaguars do come into this one a young team as 23 of them have never experienced the playoffs. The team's only postseason game since 2000 was a 28-3 wild-card loss at New England two years ago. While their were one and out in their previous appearance the one main difference this year is they have David Garrard as their starting quarterback instead of Byron Leftwich. Garrard was 9-3 as the starter this season, throwing for 18 touchdowns with only three interceptions, and was the league's third-highest rated passer behind Tom Brady and Roethlisberger.

The Steelers enter this game having lost three of their last four as their once vaunted defense has allowed averages of 28.5 points and 373.0 total yards in that span. Those total are more than 15 points and 140 yards above their averages through the first 12 games. They have only five sacks over the last five games as well but still enter with the NFL's top-ranked defense allowing only 266.4 yards per game. The Steelers also have some major injuries to worry about today with the most note worthy being the loss of RB Willie Parker who broke his leg. Parker has been replaced by Najeh Davenport, who came off the bench against the Rams when Parker got hurt to rush for 123 yards before being held to 27 last week on 12 carries in a 27-21 loss at Baltimore. Roethlisberger completed 65.3 percent of his passes for 3,154 yards with 32 TDs and 11 interceptions this season but sat out last week to rest a sprained ankle. QB Roethlisberger had three TD passes against Jacksonville last month but finished completing only15-of-32 for 142 yards.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have not won a postseason game since 1999 while the Pittsburgh Steelers are very familiar with the postseason play as they will be making their fifth appearance in the L7 seasons. However one needs to keep in mind that they are only 3-2 SU & 1-4 ATS at home in that span. Jacksonville has won three in a row SU & five straight ATS versus Pittsburgh overall and is 21-9 ATS against defensive teams who allow lees then 285 yards per game. However, Pittsburgh is 32-17 ATS against offensive teams who game more than 5.65 yards per play. For total players the over is 11-0 in Jacksonville’s last 11 games.

No team has ever won at Pittsburgh twice in one season in the Steelers' 75-year history. Will that change today?

Michael Alexander has the answer and is locked and loaded with more GUARANTEED selections at Alexandersports.