Attached is a pdf of my speed ratings. My top 3 rated for the Derby finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd with the tri paying $440. The speed ratings once again finished 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the Preakness in two of the three categories. Not much to brag about as the tri paid just $50. We did have a win recommendation on Curlin who paid $8.80, but missed our recommended exotics. So if you want, there’s no reason not to box the top 3 in this race as a saver to my main recommendations. However, the morning lines of my top three are once again the betting favorites. A tip of the cap to the oddsmaker during this Triple Crown, as he has correctly priced the true contenders.

Today’s Belmont Stakes has a short field of seven, but my numbers indicate three legitimate contenders for the win. Obviously, Curlin is the horse to beat. He ran a monster Preakness and is the deserved favorite at 6-5. If he runs his race, he could win this by the length of the stretch. But he does enter with a few question marks. Without racing at the age of two, he has run 5 races since Feb. 3rd of this year. In that time frame, he has matured very quickly while running bang-up races. He will definitely bounce (regress) in this race, but even doing that he still could win. Heading into the Preakness, Curlin’s camp was very confident and expected to win. Recent comments by trainer Asmussen and assistant Blasi have shown a concern for him handling Belmont’s deep racing surface (Big Sandy as its known). But without a listed workout, we have no numbers to work with and therefore cannot put much stock into their comments. At 6-5 though, we’ll try to beat him on the front end.

The filly, Rags to Riches, also has a shot to win here according to my speed ratings. But at what will be underlay odds (3-1 ML and surely lower at post) we’ll play against her for the win spot. No doubt about it, Rags to Riches is the best 3yo filly in the country and quite possibly good enough to beat the boys but I just don’t see it in this spot. My first knock against her is that Pletcher conditioned her in California instead of his home base in New York. The reason was that she was dealing with some injuries and he felt that the climate and surroundings would better suit her. But that was just 3 months ago, so to expect her to fire back-to-back career efforts is asking a lot. She ran her best race in her last outing in the Kentucky Oaks and earned a 104 Beyer for that. That 104 is eight points better than her previous high of 96. She has to bounce off that race, especially running a 1 ½ against the boys. She should be a minimum of 10-1 in this race, but the combination of Pletcher and Velazquez make her a huge underlay. There have been other fillies to run in the Belmont with better credentials that were just waxed by the boys. Like I said, she could win but I want no part of her at low odds.

That leads to our selection.

Play across the board. Win, Place, and Show

# 6 Hard Spun (5-2): I fully expect his morning line odds to rise at post with him being the 3rd betting choice at (hopefully) odds of 4-1. Hard Spun has done nothing wrong in his racing career as he’s won 5 of 8 races while hitting the board in 7 of those 8 with his worst finish being 4th. First off, he’s bred to run all day long as his Dam side features the great stamina influence of Turkoman. That shows in his 413 Tomlinson distance rating, and it’s the highest in the field by over 40 points. Many will point to the Derby and Preakness and say if he faltered in the stretch in both of those races, then how can he last going further today? In the Derby, Hard Spun got out to an uncontested lead in which he blazed through a half in :46 seconds. That’s not ideal, and the fact that he stayed on for 2nd was impressive because nobody was going to beat Street Sense that day. In the Preakness, Hard Spun was laying 3rd behind to speed horses that torched the half in :45 seconds. Jockey Pino moved way too early as he felt CP West make his move beside him. That move not only cost Hard Spun the race, but also cost Pino the mount today. This is the one knock I have on him as I’m not a fan of rider changes for big races especially after the previous jock rode every previous start. Garret Gomez is definitely an upgrade from Pino, but his unfamiliarity with the horse is somewhat of a concern. The pace in this race should be much different and that will help Hard Spun immensely. There won’t be blistering fractions, and that will allow Hard Spun to stalk right behind the expected pace setter Slew’s Tizzy. If that horse opts not to make the lead, then Hard Spun might find himself on a similar lead as the Derby but without fast fractions. If that’s the case, Hard Spun will have plenty in the tank for the stretch drive and he’ll be able to stay on. Hard Spun consistently runs fast races and he’s the only horse in this field to run three consecutive 100 + Beyer numbers. In fact, no other horse has even run back-to-back 100 + Beyer numbers. Hard Spun is our choice to pull the small upset in the 139th running of the Belmont Stakes.

Exotics:

All of these wagers will be made using a base of $2 to make it easier.

$2 Exacta Box = $12

# 2 Tiago + # 4 CP West + # 6 Hard Spun

$2 Tri Box = $24

# 2 Tiago + # 3 Curlin + # 4 CP West + # 6 Hard Spun

Note: No Hard Spun exactas with the favorites because the payoff would be minimal.

Good luck with your own plays as well. Don't go overboard as it is just one race.

Matty

Matty B Sports