HANDICAPPING COLLEGE FOOTBALL

The first step each season is to take a painstaking look at the previous season. We focus on all the factors that contributed to a team’s success or failure. There has to be a cause for every effect. We break down the strengths of each team. We study the reasons that might explain why it had the kind of season it did. Team morale and unity, season turning points, the caliber of opposition, how it won and lost are intricately related. Was it outclassed or beaten by breaks? Special attention is paid to the team’s leadership, both coaching and the on-field variety. The basic causes for a team’s record are often buried in these areas.

In any sport, the key is defense. When you keep a team from doing what it likes to do, it isn’t going to do things as well. Beat it in the trenches and you will most likely win. Usually, the most important game is the first conference game at home. The second most important game is the conference road opener. When the conference races begin, it is a different world. Personnel differences become a much bigger factor. Playing outside the league, other teams don’t know that much about you. You might hide players; your offense and defense are not that familiar. When you get back to the league, you don’t fool anyone.

Confidence comes from the ability to play better under pressure. Championship teams have a knack for making the right move at the right time. When you are winning, little things pop up that bring victory in the close games. When you are losing, doubts develop and with them, lack of confidence and with that the loss of close games.

Sometimes a change in personnel or strategy will ignite a team. Once certain things are inserted, a team may show new life. The student of the game has to differentiate between what amounts to two separate seasons. A football team can win more easily with a good line and average backs than vice versa.

Speed and mobility are probably the most telling ingredients in deciding football games. Size and weight mean nothing if you can’t catch your opponent. Nothing makes a difference unless it is experience, which can help offset the speed advantage. Weight becomes more of a factor late in the games when the constant pounding begins to wear down the smaller team.

Most good football teams run the ball first. You must put pressure on the other team; you do it by running. The better the ground game goes, the easier it is to complete passes to open men. A solid running attack can pick up a team… it motivates the blockers.

Great individual effort will beat any defense or the most carefully planned strategy. When your QB is throwing well and receivers are catching the ball, there is no such thing as a defense against the pass.

Team unity is probably the most decisive factor in winning, and one of the most difficult to recognize in advance. Cockiness and lack of concentration are prime reasons for an upset defeat.