Who is more important, the coaches or the players? That debate has been ongoing forever in the world of sports. I have a very strong opinion on this subject, and my reasoning is strictly based on the results that I have tracked when focusing on spread results. To be honest, if I wasn’t a handicapper and bettor, I’d view this subject as irrelevant. A casual fan could care less, and basically watch sports as a form of entertainment. Many of you have sent email or called telling me how much you love the coaching patterns that come along with my newsletter, The Blitz Report. My summer is spent (when I’m not betting the ponies) updating and looking for other relevant coaching patterns that win against the spread. I debated long and hard on whether or not I would share this info, but I realize that most of it is readily available anyway, so why not. I just make it easier for you guys, and save you all a ton of time. Don’t take offense to this, but my best stuff is kept secret. If you read my write-ups closely, some of those gems are included. OK, enough of me being frivolous. The way I look at it, coaches are way more important than the players from a betting perspective. My coaching spread patterns are accumulated by setting stringent criteria. For me to consider it a meaningful pattern, the coach must have a minimum of 3 years with that team and a minimum of a 10 game sample that falls under the particular situation. The win percentage must also be 60% or greater for the play to qualify. By setting these parameters, the results are quite meaningful and quite predictive of future performance. Many coaches have been with the same team for many years and even decades. With players coming and going, it’s obvious that a coach’s system or the way they prepare for certain games does not change. Take Bobby Bowden at Florida St for example. The guy has been the HC for 30 years. When his teams come off a SU loss, they are 35-20 ATS (64%). This speaks volumes as to his ability to get his kids to regroup and refocus during that week’s practice. There are hundreds of other solid coaching spread patterns out there, not only in football, but also in all the other major sports. It’s not the players, it’s the coaches. By the way, Florida St is a qualifying play this week at Maryland. Let’s face it; luck is a big part of this game. Many of the outcomes in these games come down to a random sequence of events that end up being lucky or unlucky for some. A very important part of handicapping success is often overlooked by many people. I believe that after the games go final, one needs to re-examine the selection process to see if in fact the handicap was correct. The bottom line comes in picking more winners than losers, but we all must admit when we were lucky to get a win and come clean when the predicted analysis of a game was way off target. By fooling yourself and thinking you had the “right side” when in fact you were fortunate to get a win only hurts your chances for future success. Being honest about the results allows you to become a better handicapper and a better bettor going forward. With that said, I’d still rather be lucky than good.
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