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Erik Scheponik's NCAA Tourney Preview

Erik Scheponik
Erik Scheponik

During the 2005-2006 sports season, Erik was the only handicapper to rank in the Sports Watch top 5 in all 4 major sports, winning money in all 4 (NCAA and NFL football, NCAA and NBA basketball)!
By:Erik Scheponik     Date: Mar 20, 2008
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Okay, so now its my turn to play Dick Vitale and Jay Bilas real quick. I really can’t fathom South Alabama making this tournament. Sure they have the nice win over Mississippi St., but shouldn’t they have at least made the finals of a conference tournament played on their home court? Especially when that conference is the lowly Sun Belt (RPI 15). I definitely would have given that spot to Illinois St., for putting together a 13-5 regular season in a much better Missouri Valley (won at Southern Illinois where nobody wins), and then making the conference final. The MVC has represented itself extremely well in this tournament (on a 21-10$ run, okay now back to bracketology), and is still the nation’s #7 rated conference according to the RPI. The Valley also dominated Bracket Buster weekend, going 8-2 SU/7-3ATS. Why have the Bracket Buster if the results aren’t going to be factored in?

Other teams who I thought were debatable selections, in this order: Baylor, Oregon (how are they a #9 seed, anyway?). Also, Kentucky deserves to be in, but I’m not sure they’re a tourney caliber team without Patrick Patterson in the lineup. Teams besides Illinois St. that I would consider as good or better tourney selections than the above, in my order of preference: Arizona St., Dayton, Virginia Tech, and Virginia Commonwealth.

Speaking of the brackets, isn’t there always that one subregion where all the teams you couldn’t wait to predict a shocker for (in your brackets, or in terms of handicapping) all seem to fall? Well, this year season there is two of them for me. The bottom of the East Bracket (Birmingham games), and the bottom of the West (Washington DC) are definitely loaded. These are very tough subregions for Tennessee and Duke to get out of as St.Joseph’s, Arizona (now healthy), Purdue, Butler (Bulldogs are underseeded, one of only 5 teams with 29 or more wins, but I guess we are counting Bracket Buster results all of a sudden!), and West Virginia are all very dangerous, and the 3 seeds Louisville, and Xavier are legit teams that had some extra time to prepare off of early conference tourney.

The important thing for us to remember is that BRACKETOLOGY is not HANDICAPPING! Some of you have probably followed these scenarios religiously, and really don’t need any advice filling out your brackets or other tournament type contests. However, can you relate that knowledge to handicapping against a pointspread? It’s not an easy task, and although I love “bracketology” just like all of you, I handicap this sport for a living. I am in the midst of a 58% basketball season, and made the Sports Watch (monitoring service for handicapping services, www.sports-watch.com) Top 5 for regular season college basketball for the THIRD CONSECUTIVE SEASON. Unlike some services who are probably telling you they have “never-lost systems” for CBI tourney games they are trying to sell you (think about that one for a minute), I combine multiple factors, statistical, situational, and fundamental, as well as a keen understanding of coaching and matchups to give my clients the very plays I play myself. My detailed analysis will help you understand where the line value for our plays come from, and make our tourney plays with confidence. I’d love to have you on board for March Madness, for the excellent price of $199. That includes all NBA (Nation’s #1 service at 66%), NCAA, NIT, and CBI action, and if you don’t show profit, you get all remaining NCAA regular season at no extra charge! You can also get the entire season through the NBA playoffs for $375. If you are interested in making smart, well-thought wagers that have a history of turning a profit, give me a call at (412) 377-7462. You will deal with me directly... No Operators, No Callbacks! Just good ole’ fashioned March Madness handicapping!

Some more tourney tidbits:

The 7 teams I think can win it all, listed in order of my preference:

Kansas, UCLA, Tennessee, Louisville, Memphis, North Carolina Pittsburgh

High Seed that is the biggest Wild Card?

Tennessee. This team has the talent to win it all, but is it too much talent? Bruce Pearl can only play 5 at once, and their lack of half court defense along with the margin of error that comes with their style, makes them a candidate for a bad day against some of the slower teams in their bracket. Early exit wouldn’t shock…Nor would a championship

Double Digit Seed Sleeper

Siena has a fighting shot over Vandy. St.Joe’s is extremely talented and could win 1 or 2… But I’m going to go with Arizona here. There are 3, maybe even 4 NBA players on this team, and the future may indeed be now. They are 16-5 SU/ 12-5-1 ATS with both Nic Wise and Jerryd Bayless in the lineup, and Chase Budinger is a difficult matchup for any team’s 3 or 4 man.

Toughest 5-9 Seed

USC. Team has overcome numerous injuries, and is playing their best basketball of the season right now. This team is Pac-10 battle tested, and can win playing fast or slow. 39% defensive FG meshes nicely with the offensive talents of OJ Mayo and Davon Jefferson. A healthy Daniel Hackett is the glue that holds it together.

Team that Earned the Biggest Upgrade in the Last Week

Pittsburgh, although Bobby Knight’s bold prediction of them winning it all may hurt our value a little bit. The one weakness this team had all season was perimeter defense, especially against athletic teams. However, Sam Young has really turned it up on that end, and Gilbert Brown adds athleticism the Panthers simply did not have most of the season. Their inside/outside attack, along with toughness, coaching, and basketball IQ will make the Panthers’ a very tough out for Memphis in the Sweet 16.

My Pick to Win it All

Kansas over UCLA. These are the two I will use in all my brackets, and although it wouldn’t surprise me if it came the other way around…The Jayhawks are the nation’s best team, in my opinion.

How Will I Attempt to Profit from My Predicted Champion

The way I recommend playing any team to win a tournament or postseason. Forget a future bet. Risk the amount you would have played on the future bet, on a 1st round Money Line. Roll those (often meager) winnings + the original risk amount into the next game ML, and repeat all the way through the tournament, for every game. 95% of the time (maybe even better), you will make more this way then on a future bet before the tournament. You will often reach what you made have made by taking the future price before the last game is even played, as the book’s hold on future bets is considerably large! I will play 3-4 teams in the tournament in this manner.

Check www.elitesportsinvesting.com daily for free tourney selections, as well as pay-after-you-win selections. (412)377-7462 if you are interested in the tourney package! See you at the Dance!


 


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