Cincinnati has grabbed control of the divisional race thanks to a 14-4 record over the last 18 games and head into this series with a nice eight-game cushion. “There’s more pressure on them than there is on us,” said tonight’s starter Bronson Arroyo. “So we can go in an play good baseball.” The Reds have produced a solid 32-21 record in September over the last three years and the total runs is 22-26 Over/Under in those contests. It’s also important to note that the club is 27-18 versus left-handed starters in 2010 and the team is averaging 6.7 runs in their past seven games overall.

Red starting pitcher Bronson Arroyo is 14-8 with a 3.82 ERA in 27 starts this season and the club has picked up wins in four of his last six outings. He was handed a 3-2 home loss to the Cubs last time out, allowing three runs and five hits over seven innings of work. The right-hander has a sharp 9-3 record and 3.38 ERA in 14 road starts, allowing opponents to hit for a .224 combined average. In 26 career games (24 starts) versus the Cardinals, Arroyo has garnered a 7-10 record and 4.58 ERA, including a 1-2 mark and 4.78 ERA in four appearances this year.

Cardinals starting pitcher Jaime Garcia is 12-6 with a 2.33 ERA in 25 starts this season and is coming in on a two-game winning streak. Over those two starts, he has tossed 14.1 shutout innings and allowed just eleven hits. The left-hander is 5-3 with a 1.55 ERA in 12 home starts this season, surrendering just three home runs in 75.1 innings. In five career games (three starts) versus the Reds, Garcia has a perfect 3-0 record and 4.87 ERA.

Recommended Bet

Bettors will find it hard to play against the Reds due to the team’s 5-0 record in Arroyo’s last five starts as a road underdog. Our backing is with the Cardinals (1.76, -132), especially with the team’s 49-22 mark in the first game of a series.