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Friday's MLB Thoughts and Leans - Free Plays

By:Speculating Sports     Date: Apr 16, 2010
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I really wanted to find an excuse to take Texas +192 at the NY Yankees today, but I just couldn't bet against Sabathia. C.C. pitched great in his last game and almost threw a no-hitter. Texas doesn't have much experience against him, and they don't hit lefties as well. Plus they are a little banged up. However, the Yanks haven't faced young lefty C.J. Wilson, who looked great in his first start. The under would be worth a look if it wasn't so low. I think that 8.5 isn't worth taking an under on in a game with two great hitting line-ups like the Rangers and Yankees. MLB totals are more about the line-ups than the pitchers in my opinion. I took a very close look at Cincinnati today against Pittsburgh. However, Zach Duke has pitched well against the Reds. The Reds will send Mike Leake to the mound. He completely skipped the minors and went straight to the pros. Leake looked ok in his first start but was a little shaky at times, walking seven batters. The Pirates have no experience against him though, which could cause them problems. However, he might get hit hard if he's inconsistent again...who knows. Pittsburgh has been a great home team, so the Pirates and Duke might be worth taking because of just the value aspect. Beckett and the Red Sox might be worth taking because he has dominated them at home while getting hammered by the Rays down in Tampa. I like Minnesota today against Greinke and the Royals. Not enough for a free play, but it's a lean for me. Baker has dominated the Royals as well, and the notoriously awful KC bullpen could ruin a great outing by Greinke anyway. Looked closely at Edwin Jackson and the Diamondbacks today against San Diego...mainly because of how bad the Padres hitters have been. Jackson has been inconsistent though, but so has his opposing starter Jon Garland. Pretty good price on Arizona though with the much hotter hitting line-up, although their pen really got used alot last night in their extra innings loss to the Dodgers. That kept me off of Arizona in this game.
 



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