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Kentucky Derby 133: Trainers and Post Positions

Matt Baiungo
Matt Baiungo

In the 2003-2004 Station Casino's NFL Football Challenge, Matt won the last four week's contest with a 15-5 ATS record and collected his share of the $10,000 prize. Numerous documented Top 10 finishes in all sports also appear on this handicapper's impressive resume.
By:Matt Baiungo     Date: May 4, 2007
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Shall we just call it the Todd Pletcher Derby? Pletcher makes-up 25% of the field as he will send out five of twenty runners in Saturday’s 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher has never won the Derby despite saddling 14 runners since 2000. Pletcher is the most prominent trainer in the country, and if you were to look at his daily entrants across the country, most of those runners go off as the favorite. No matter what track they run at and no matter who’s riding the horse, if Pletcher’s name is listed as the trainer, then the public automatically assumes the horse has a chance. With that in mind, one would assume that Pletcher’s horses attract a lot of money in the Derby. In fact, the opposite is true. He has never saddled a favorite, and 10 of his 14 runners went off at odds from 11-1 and up to 58-1. Bluegrass Cat, a horse that ran for Pletcher last year, finished 2nd at odds of 30-1.

Pletcher’s five-horse contingent this year consists of two million dollar purchases, Cowtown Cat and Any Given Saturday; Scat Daddy and Circular Quay run for owner Michael B Tabor who has the deepest pockets in the game and Sam P. who is owned by John and Laurie Wolf who also owned Pletcher’s best horse to date, Ahado, a filly who was sold for a world record 9 million dollars. It’s no secret why Pletcher has five entrants in this derby. He trains for owners who are well-heeled and are able to purchase the best of the best in each and every sale.

Pletcher seems to be very confident this year: "We have horses that are ahead of the curve in terms of experience. We have horses that are legitimately bred to get the distance. I feel very comfortable that the horses we are bringing to it this year are mile and a quarter prospects. I would say without a doubt at this point, we're in the strongest position we've ever been in." On Cowtown Cat in post 6: “We felt there were two options, post 6 or 12.” On Scat Daddy in post 14: “Most of his wins were when he was towards the outside.” On Circular Quay in post 16: “Probably with him the post position mattered the least, but John Velazquez preferred the outside.” On Sam P. in post 13: “Jack Wolf wanted the 13 post.” On Any Given Saturday in post 18: “We didn’t want to go all the way to the inside.”

Pletcher isn’t the only trainer sending out more than one runner on Saturday. In fact, four other trainers will each send-out two entrants. West coast based and first time Derby trainer Doug O’Neill has Liquidity and Great Hunter. On Liquidity in post 9: “I think everyone kind of wants to be not way on the outside and not way in the inside. There are probably about 15 slots that really aren’t too bad and the other five are a little shaky.” On Great Hunter in post 20: “You’ll need a little extra luck from the 20 hole, but then you’re gonna need luck to win anyway.”

Texas-based trainer Steve “Cash” Asmussen will send out probable post time Derby favorite Curlin along with stablemate Zanjero. On Curlin in post 2. “A horse of his size can take his position, but we would have preferred to be further outside.” On Zanjero in post 3: “Things have been mentioned.”

Also a first time Derby trainer, Darrin Miller sends-out two, Sedgefield and Dominican, who will run as separate entities even though both are owned by Silverton Hill. On Sedgefield in post 1. “We needed Sedgefield down on the inside.” On Dominican in post 19. “He will cover up behind horses, so we are fine with it.”

Wllliam Kaplan, training since 1979, rounds out the multiple trainer entrants with longshots Storm in May and Imawildandcrazyguy. On Imawildandcrazyguy in post 5: “Imawildandcrazyguy will drop back and come from behind. On Storm in May in post 4: “Storm in May will be about midpack. I kept them together because I know ‘Crazyguy’ breaks straight. This is especially significant because Storm in May is blind in his right eye and his stablemate will break from his outside. Everything’s falling into place, from getting the first pick yesterday to keeping these two guys together in the gate.”

All in all, five trainers will make-up 65% of the 20 horse field. But don’t overlook the other trainers. Some have already won the Derby; Carl Nafzger (Unbridled in 1990) trainer of second choice Street Sense, Barclay Tagg (Funny Cide in 2003) who has Nobiz Like Shobiz, and John Sherriffs (Giacomo in 2005) who will send out Tiago. Larry Jones (# 8 Hard Spun), Jamie Sanders (#10 Teuflesberg), Jerry Hollendorfer (# 11 Bwana Bull), and William Currin (# 17 Stormello) round out the list of trainers for the 2007 Kentucky Derby.

Keep in mind that trainers are just like coaches in that they respond to media questions with the most obvious and cliché answers. As sports handicappers, our job lies in reading between the lines in order to gain an edge in the pointspread. Handicapping horses is no different, especially when analyzing America's most recognizable race, The Kentucky Derby. The Derby's attendance usually exceeds 140,000 people, and the amount of money wagered by these unsophisticated players on-track and others around the world makes this race an exceptional overlay. Those of us who follow the sport year round have a decided edge over the general public, and when the media over-hypes certain contenders our edge increases even more. Good luck with your Derby wagers.


 

  Matty Baiungo

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