Monday Morning Coffee

New England proved to all that they are who we thought they were when they were 10-0 and that the recent close calls to Philadelphia and Baltimore were abnormalities. My research had New England graded as a 5* MONSTER play was strong that it gave me reason to proclaim a promise that this play would win easy ATS. The LOS is often times where I focus my eyes at the beginning of a game. Often times a team that controls the LOS and/or gains penetration will win the game. The sooner they gain that edge, the q uicker that defensive front will be worn down. NE simply dominated the LOS from start to finish and even at a score of 17-14 there was simply No doubt that New England would win and cover the game.

I also had a 5* winner on the Colts and that game was very easy indeed. Again, the Colts superior offensive line dominated form the first play of the game. What I like most about the top teams in the AFC is that they go for the “kill” when they are given the opportunity. GB and Dallas are NFC teams that have transformed themselves into AFC type teams. This evolution is a real necessity if the NFC is going to the win the Super Bowl in any of the next 4 seasons.

What is the Cover 2? How about the less talked about Tampa 2? In the cover 2 the SS and FS are responsible for deep threats and each covers ½ of the field. Most of the time the read is where the QB is looking, but we have all seen Romo, Brady, and manning look one way and then suddenly turn to the opposite side of the field. So, now the reads have become watching the WR and more often the TE. With the 2 safeties responsible for ½ the deep part of the field and in their need to gain width it opens up the middle of the field. The TE then becomes the primary target. A strong TE like a Gates or newcomer Whitten can exploit a cover 2 and essentially reduce it to worthless. The Patriots use more slots receivers than the TE in exploiting the cover -2. In lining up RBs in WR spots an offense can gain excellent matchups and then exploit them. In sum, the cover-2 is a base defensive strategy with dozens of varying looks.

One of these variations is the Cover-2 Man which the SD Chargers inherited from Wade Phillips. In this scheme the 2 safeties are responsible for the deep zone areas of the field while the CB and LB are assigned a offensive receiver to cover in a man to man role. Cover-2 zones are the same as Man except that all defenders are assigned areas of the field to cover and role that coverage in the direction of the QB’s eyes.

The Tampa -2 refers to a style of defense played by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and implemented by its coaches, Tony Dungy, Lovie Smith, and Monte Kiffin, in recent years. You certainly recognize all of these names and this defensive scheme is used by each of them with their current teams. In basic terms, the Tampa -2 has one major difference to the cover-2 scheme and that is the MLB covers the middle of the field. This is the area that is left open in the cover-2. Yet, the receiver reads are quite easy. For example, a defense may line up in a base cover-2 and the QB may instruct a WR to go in motion behind the LOS. This is simply to see if the look is man or zone. If you see a defensive back moving with the WR in motion than the QB can make a safe bet that the coverage is man. On the snap, the TE can immediately look for the MLB and how much depth he has achieved from the LOS. If he sees him then he runs a slant or hook pattern. If the MLB is not in the peripheral vision of the TE then the TE will run a fly pattern right down the hash. This is the pattern and read that Romo and Whitten have run to near perfection this season.

I have used this information to help identify significant matchup advantages in the College Bowl Games. Many times when two teams from two different conferences meet they are exposed to a new brand of football. This often times will present matchups that force a defense to us only a cover-man scheme because the WR threats cannot be covered in man situations with their personnel. These matchups lend itself to plays on the OVER and I will be mentioning more of that next week.

On a bright note I want to mention a generous man in Dallas. Neal Hawks, a Dallas Mavericks season-ticket holder, gave his 10 courtside seats for Saturday night’s game to Army soldiers who had returned from Iraq and Afghanistan with serious injuries. Now that is certainly the yuletide spirit and may we all extend that spirit throughout the coming year.

Looking at the NFL this week I want to highlight another powerful system that has gone 49-15 ATS Play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is a good team with a winning percentage of 60-75% or more of their games on the season. I estimate that the line for this game is Tampa bay -11. So, the Falcons, despite the short week will have an excellent chance for a cover ATS.

Monday Morning Coffee - December 11, 2007