Monday Morning Coffee - December 17, 2007

Monday Morning Coffee My NFL plays have really heated up over the past several weeks. I am on a 10-2 ATS 5* MONSTER play run and I am now 14-3 ATS on Sunday Football 5* MONSTER plays the past 3 seasons. Not to mention hitting 68% ATS with Monday Night 5* plays spanning 3 seasons. This past Saturday College Hoops caught fire. My entire 14-year career has been based on the success of identifying dogs that win and especially in money line sports like hockey and MLB. I had a 3-pack of Live Major Dogs Saturday that won ATS and straight up. Many times my clients will parlay these plays ATS and/or against the money line. I also won a 7* MONSTER DOG pay with Georgia Southern who was a 15 point dog and lost by just 3 points to Florida. Last, but certainly not least my NHL plays have been just spectacular hitting 72.7% of my plays with 85% of these plays DOGS. The record now stands at 56-21 with 4642 units made to date. Seems like a broken record each week, but if you make a commitment to my all of plays in each sport you will have a high probability of making substantial returns – and best of all is that you only pay then you win!

The NFC wildcard picture is nearly completed with the Monday win by Minnesota over Chicago. That win eliminated four teams: Philadelphia, Washington, Arizona, and Detroit. This has become a 2 team race between the Vikings and the Saints and the Saints hold the tie breaker if they should tie at year end. That’s exactly what I see happening with Minnesota losing one of its’ last 2 games and the Saints winning both.

The Saints host Philadelphia this week, who have been eliminated from playoff contention. Keep your ears open as to the playing status of McNabb, who has been rumored to be done as an Eagle all season. The Eagles would not want him injured in a meaningless game if that is the transition that will happen post season. New Orleans has opened as a 3 point favorite to Philadelphia and Minnesota will be installed as a 7 point favorite to Washington. Of all the playoff contenders the Saints are the only team not having to face a team with a winning record.

Let’s take a look at the Philadelphia/Saints game. My Ai Simulator has graded the Saints as a 3* Live Major play. They have a 73% probability of winning this game by 5 or more points. Fundamentally, the Eagles have exploited favorable matchups when RB Westbrook ends up being covered by a LB. This will not be the case in this game and you will see S Harper man up against Westbrook. Harper has filled this role all season against top level RB and even TE when necessary. Clearly, you contain Westbrook and you defeat the Eagles. Saints have the best red zone offense in the NFL having converted 32 TD in 44 trips inside the red zone and the Eagles bend and don’t break style will not stop the Saints. Saints are playing the best football and they will win this game as well.

Supporting this graded play is a 25-year winning system that has gone 38-16 ATS for 70.4%. Play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road win and with the game being played in December. AiS also projects an 85% probability that New Orleans will gain 350 or more total yards. In this role the Saints have a 7-1 ATS record over the past 3 seasons. Take the Saints.