Sunday March 6, 2008

Houston is riding a 19 game winning streak and will more than likely be 21-0 when they take on the Lakers at home on Sunday. Houston has a road game at play-off hungry Atlanta, who is holding onto the 8th and final playoff position in the Eastern Conference. Houston then returns home for a game where they could get caught looking ahead to this Lakers game when they face a poor Bobcats team. My Ai Simulator estimates that Houston will be favored in this game by 3 and possibly 4 points. 4 points if they blowout Atlanta and Charlotte and cover both ATS. IN fact next week will be a severe challenge and test for the Rockets as they have to face the Lakers, Boston, Hornets, Warriors, and Suns. They could go 1-4 during this stretch. For now, I have a 3* graded play on the Lakers and I would also look to the money line for perhaps a 1.5 * amount if the line is at +4 or higher. I do have one supporting angle to share with you that does show how vulnerable Houston will be for this big game against the Lakers. Houston is just 4-19 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Lakers are still my pick and will continue to be my pick to win the Championship. They certainly have increased the tempo of their offense scoring 113.3 PPG since the All-Star break ranking 2nd in the NBA. They rank 3rd overall in scoring at 108.2 PPG for the season. In fact, the Lakers are just better in all facets of the game than Houston. Houston scoring 105 PPG since the All-Star break. Lakers are not relying on the 3-point shot nor the perimeter shot to get their 113.3 PPG. They are spreading the ball to the best available shot – meaning the shot that is closest to the rim. Lakers have the role players and the speed and quickness to exploit the middle of the paint. Lakers will have a significant advantage in getting to the rim as often as possible – and they are an excellent foul shooting team as well. Take the Lakers.