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NBA ATS No Fluff No Fat Just Fact III

By:Cajun Sports     Date: Mar 10, 2010
Print Article   

Welcome to the third installment of our NBA ATS No Fluff, No Fat, Just Fact Countdown for the 2009-10 Season. The countdown takes a look at the league’s top five teams against the spread overall as well as key situational angles for each of the top five teams. Here are the league’s top five against the spread teams…

Milwaukee Bucks used an 8-1 against the spread run to take over first place in our countdown. Milwaukee is 40-21-2 ATS overall for 65.6 percent winners on the year after breaking into the top five in our last issue with a record of 31-20 ATS which was good enough for third place. In our last issue we mentioned that the Bucks had been the most consistent team against the spread when comparing home and road records, they ranked fifth at the time in both of those categories. For this issue we see they have stepped up their play with a 19-10-1 ATS record at home which is good enough for 2nd place and an outstanding 21-11-1 ATS on the highway which ranks first in the league when playing away from home. The Bucks continue to be a strong play when in the role of favorite with a record of 19-8-2 ATS overall and a perfect 3-0-1 ATS as a road favorite this season. Our Key Angle for the Bucks in our last issue was to play on Milwaukee when facing Atlantic Division foes because they were 10-1 ATS for 90.9 percent in that situation well they didn’t disappoint as we are using that again this time. Key Angle: Milwaukee is 11-1 ATS (91.7%) when facing teams from the Atlantic Division this season.

Utah Jazz find themselves right behind the Bucks again in this issue although they have moved from fourth place to second place in our list of the top five in the league. The Jazz have used a very strong home spread record to make their move in our countdown, they are 21-10-2 ATS (67.7%) which is tops in the league when playing in front of the hometown fans. In our search for specific situations to possibly back the Jazz we see that they are very strong coming off a SU loss in their last game going 17-5 ATS (77.3%) in that situation this season. We also note that they are a money making 12-3 ATS (80%) when taking on teams from the Southwest Division. Key Angle: Utah is 5-0 ATS (100%) when playing with no rest in back-to-back road games this year.

Oklahoma City has fallen from second to third place in our countdown with an overall record of 37-25 ATS (59.7%) this season. The Thunder have been one of the most consistent teams in the countdown even though they dropped a spot from our last issue they actually entered the countdown in the third position. Based on the premise that teams play better at home you may think that’s the best situation to back this young Thunder team but that is not the case they are only 16-14 ATS (53.3%) in front of their home crowd while a very solid 21-11 ATS (65.6%) on the highway which gives them the number two spot in the league when playing away from home. OKC has been money when coming off a SU loss in their last game posting a record of 19-5 ATS (79.2%) this season. Key Angle: Play Over when the Thunder are playing with no rest in a back-to-back road situation. These games have gone over at a rate of 5-1 this year.

Atlanta Hawks fifteen minutes are up; they held the number one position in our last countdown but have since fallen to number four. Their fall can be attributed to poor spread performances at home and on the road. In our last countdown Atlanta was dominating foes on their home floor leading the league with a spread record of 18-9 ATS but they are now only 19-13 ATS in front of the hometown folk. The Hawks have struggled on the road posting a record of 17-14 ATS which ranks 12th in the league this season. Both are winning spread records but not strong enough to hold onto the number one position in our countdown. The Hawks are 11-3 ATS (78.6%) versus teams from the Atlantic Division. Key Angle: Atlanta is 11-0-1 ATS facing a team they defeated in their previous same-season match-up and they have a revenge game on deck.

Phoenix Suns enter the countdown for the first time this season with an overall record of 36-28-1 ATS (56.2%) which is good enough for the fifth and final spot. The Suns are 17-14-1 ATS for 54.8% winners on their home floor this season. Their road record has helped propel them into the countdown going 19-14 ATS for 57.6% on the year. The search for solid winning situations in which to possibly back the Suns has turned up a 24-12 ATS mark which is 66.7% winners when they are playing with one-day of rest. Key Angle: Phoenix is 14-0 Over on the road with at most one day of rest after a double-digit home victory in which they shot fifty percent or better from the field, going over by an average of 12.6 points per game.

NBA ATS Countdown System:

Play ON NBA road underdogs with at least one day of rest after a double-digit loss in which they shot at least fifty percent from the field. These road underdogs are 15-1 ATS and average covering the spread by 6.2 points per game since 2008.

This concludes the third issue of our 2010-11 NBA ATS Countdown; please remember to be safe and as always good luck.
 



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