The NFC South appears to be a division that may regress this season. In 2008, NFC South teams were extremely tough to beat on their home fields, both straight-up and against the spread. But we think it will be extremely difficult for three of these teams to duplicate that success. There is one team in this group that we are very high on, and we have in-depth analysis on that team in our 2009 Blitz Report Preseason Football Annual. We see some great value in a particular wager with this team, and you will get that full-season wagering strategy when you order a copy of our football annual.

Here’s our take on the NFC South as we saw it way back in early May.

NFC South

It was quite a year for the Atlanta Falcons. After being riddled with nothing but negativity over the previous couple of seasons, the Falcons turned things around with fresh, new faces. GM Tom Dimitroff, HC Mike Smith, and QB Matt Ryan were all integral parts in earning a playoff berth. But, in order to keep pace, the Falcons will need to field a defense capable of stopping opponents consistently. Gone are five starters, but that may be a good thing considering Atlanta ranked in the bottom third in overall defense. While things broke the Falcons way in ’08, we may see a sophomore slump this year.

QB Jake Delhomme bounced-back strong, and led the Carolina Panthers to a 12-4 mark and back into the post-season. The Panthers’ strength was their running game that went for over 150 yards per game behind DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Steve Smith is the most explosive wide receiver in the game, and as long as the Panthers remain healthy, this offense will put up big numbers again this year. However, their defense collapsed late last season and their defensive line is in need of a fix. Look to play-on Carolina when they face opponents who can’t stop the run, especially in the underdog role.

After failing to reach the playoffs because of an inexplicable home loss (- 11) to Oakland, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have decided to start anew. Raheem Morris takes over as the head coach and well-respected Jim Bates will be the defensive coordinator. The Bucs finally feel they have their long term answer at quarterback after selecting Josh Freeman with the 17th overall pick. Tampa struggled to score points, and if Freeman gets the nod, their offense doesn’t figure to improve. On defense, the Bucs gutted their linebackers in order to get big bodies up front which suits Bates’ scheme. Tampa is in rebuilding mode, so be careful of laying points with them this year.

Spotlight Team

If their defense can ever come up with a solid season, the New Orleans Saints may be on the verge of big things in 2009. There’s no question that the Saints possess one of, if not the best offense in the NFL. The fireworks get started with aggressive play caller and head coach Sean Payton. We love how he calls a game as he really allows his players to get the most out of their talents. QB Drew Brees is top 5 in the game, and he’s a guy that makes others around him better. Back to the defense. The Saints made a tremendous hire by securing Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator. Williams has a great track record, and he may be the one to make things right. The Saints went just 8-8 last year, but five of the eight losses came by 5, 2, 3, 3, and 2 points. It’s back to the playoffs in 2009.

Caution: If the teams listed below fail to perform like we expect, discontinue betting-on or against them. You’ll learn more by watching a couple of games than you do by making preseason assessments.

Thanks for reading, Matty