1. Nothing's changed...Success, both on the field and against the pointspread (ATS) in the NFL is still more dependent on turnovers than any other factor. Teams that win the turnover battle are 47-11 Straight Up (SU) and 42-14-2 ATS. Try handicapping that.

2. Where's the parity? The league's clear-cut 4 best teams, Pittsburgh, Dallas, New England, and Indianapolis are 19-1 SU/ 16-4 ATS.

3. At the same time, home doggers are doing well as road favorites are only 9-14 ATS thus far in '07.

4. It is worth noting that of the aformentioned Big 4, only New England has played an opponent ranked in the top 7 of my NFL Power Rankings (San Diego, week 2). Randy Moss for a 4th rd. draft pick may go down as the biggest steal in professional sports history. Without Moss, the Pats were one of the league's 2 best teams. With him, they look like a threat to join the '72 Dolphins as the only teams in NFL history to go undefeated.

5. More Pats. (why not? they're that good!) After 4 games this season, Tom Brady was 89-114 passing. That's a 78% completion percentage, folks! Brady's updated passer rating is 128.7, while the all-time single-season record is 121.1 by Peyton Manning in 2004. The only real adjustment Randy Moss had to make joining the Pats was that the ball always hits him in the hands!

6. Last year, the NFL's Final Four Playoff Teams all used a RB platoon system. Notable RB platoons this season are: New England again (Morris and Maroney), Jacksonville (Taylor and Jones-Drew), Dallas (Jones and Barber), NY Giants (Jacobs and Ward), Green Bay (Morency and Wynn). Other teams are using semi-platoons, or multiple guys because of injuries, but those are the teams that are using the true platoons similar to last year's Conference Championship contestants.

7. Through 4 games, the New Orleans Saints defense has recorded exactly 2 interceptions and 1 sack.

8. The Saints, Dolphins, and Rams are the team's 3 winless teams. An interesting note is that all NFL teams that start the season 0-4 are on a sparkling 64-29 ATS run when playing as a home dog off of a loss the remainder of the season. Definitely some value in being contrarian.

9. Speaking of the 'Fins, was I the only moron in a world to use them in a Survivor League (Week 4, Oakland)? Thought so.

10. As for the other winless team, the Rams? Well, they were my sleeper team to win the NFC, and I have the Future Bet Ticket to prove it! They are the lone black eye from my 4 NFL Value Teams article I wrote this preseason. The other 3: Buffalo, Cleveland, and Washington are off to a 8-5-1 ATS start. Even with the injury-depleted Rams 1-2 dog mark, the quartet is 8-6 when taking points, and that's the role I told readers to key on.

11. 6 of the NFL's top 7 teams in my NFL Power Ratings represent the AFC, which helps explain why New England is laying 5.5 at Dallas this week.

12. Pittsburgh was a perfect illustration of that AFC dominance last week, blanking Seattle 21-0 despite playing without Casey Hampton, Troy Polamalu, Hines Ward, and Santonio Holmes. TOTALS PLAYERS NOTE: I've watched at least part of every Steelers game this season, and they run the play clock down almost the entire way on 90% of their snaps. Their games are flying, and that may be the reason, they are off to a 1-4 UNDER start thus far.

13. There are 3 NFL Teams that have outyarded their opponent in every game this season, those teams are the 3 undefeateds: Dallas, Indianapolis and New England. There are also 3 teams that have lost the stats in each game. Those teams are Chicago, Buffalo, and San Francisco.

14. In the last 22 Regular season weeks of football (start of '06), NFL underdogs with the better statistical defense are on a 47-27 ATS run.

15. The Redskins were one of my value teams this season and they have not dissapointed. A big reason for their defensive improvement has been rookie safety Laron Landry. Not only is he a HUGE upgrade over Adam Archueleta, but he has really taken the burden off of Sean Taylor. Taylor is one of the NFL's most gifted players, but was simply asked/trying to do too much last season. He is playing at an elite level thus far in '07.

16. Remember the Giants' sackfest a couple of weeks back against Donovan Mcnabb and the Eagles? In the 1st Half of that Game, the Eagles called 10 running plays that netted them 69 yards, and 19 passing plays that netted 15 yards. They were trailing 7-0 at the half. Kinda makes you wonder why Correll Buckhalter's number wasn't called a bit more in the 2nd half? Will Andy Reid and Brian Billick ever put their egos aside when it comes to playcalling?

17. Who would have thought at the the quarter point of the season, that it would be the Oakland Raiders leading the NFL in rushing at 194 ypg and 5.3ypr? They are ahead in both categories by a wide margin over Pittsburgh (167ypg) and Denver ( 4.8ypr).

18. I'm a believer in the improvements of the Arizona Cardinals, but I'd be leary of laying points with them. Not only will they be in some unfamiliar roles, but they're not very good at playing with a lead. In 4 of their 5 games, they've either blown a 4th quarter lead (at San Fran, Seattle), or gave up a quick drive to make a game closer than what it was is (Pittsburgh, St.Louis). Oddly enough, in their other game against Baltimore, they mounted a huge 2nd half comeback before losing at the buzzer.

19. I applauded the Rams' selection of Brian Leonard on draft day, and he has been their lone bright spot thus far. Leonard snapped the Cardinals' streak of not allowing a 100 yd. rusher in 8 games last week, and this was without Marc Bulger or Isaac Bruce in the lineup. The streak was actually rather impressive as backs like Gore (twice), Alexander, Mcgahee, and Parker were all held in check by the rugged 'Zona front 7.

20. Brett Favre is so easy to cheer for when you look at the number of players on NFL injury reports nowadays. However, despite the Pack's fast start, they will need to help #4 out by running a little better than 68ypg and 3.3 ypr.

21. People keep telling me Larry Johnson isn't the same, but with the Chiefs' losses on the O-line the last 2 seasons, along with an opening schedule that included the rush Ds of Houston, Chicago, Minnesota, San Diego, and Jacksonville (only the Jaguars allow more than 4.0ypr OR 100ypg, and we know their front 7 is better than those numbers)...I don't know if I'd jump to those type of conclusions, just yet. LJ gets to face the Bengals in Week 6, let's see if he regains some of what he's lost against a Cincy run D allowing 152 yds. on 5.5 ypr.

22. The NFL's Best Division is the AFC South with all 4 teams rating among the Top 18 in my NFL Power Ratings. The worst is the NFC South with none among the top 18 (Carolina would have been with Delhomme)

23. The Tennessee Titans remain the NFL's best underdog at 13-3 the last two seasons taking points. Jeff Fisher's record as a road underdog is now 42-23 since his first full season in Tennessee.

24. Don't forget about last year's Super Bowl Champs. The Colts have now won 10 straight football games, and are 20 yds. better offensivley and 36 yds. better defensively than last year.

25. The 6 teams that selected with the 6 first picks in the NFL are a combined 16-12 thus far in '07, with each team having at least 2 wins. So I guess there's a little parity after all!

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