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NFL Midterm Report

Erik Scheponik
Erik Scheponik

During the 2005-2006 sports season, Erik was the only handicapper to rank in the Sports Watch top 5 in all 4 major sports, winning money in all 4 (NCAA and NFL football, NCAA and NBA basketball)!
By:Erik Scheponik     Date: Nov 11, 2007
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Here’s some random thoughts, stats, and facts for all 32 teams in the NFL. The teams are listed in the order that they are ranked in my NFL Power Rankings.

1. New England- What can be said about these Pats that hasn’t already been said already? How about this one…They have scored in 29 out of 32 quarters this season. And as if they weren’t disgustingly good enough on both sides of the ball, they are only 1 of 5 teams to miss only 1 FG on the season, and they rank in the top 8 in the league in all 4 kick return and coverage categories. They are dominant in all aspects.

2. Indianapolis- The only team in the league to rank Top 5 in both offensive and defensive yards per play at 6.1 and 4.7 respectively. They played the Pats dead even without Marvin Harrison and starting LT Tony Umoh. Tied with New England with league lead in turnover margin at +11 thus far.

3. Pittsburgh- The Steelers are currently posting a defensive hat trick. They lead the league in defensive yards per game(237), ypplay (4.6), and points per game (12.2). The longest play from scrimmage that Pittsburgh has given up this season is 38 yards, also a league best.

4. Dallas- The Cowboys lead the league in net ypplay as they gain a league best 6.7 pplay, and allow only 5.0 ypplay for a net of 1.7ypplay. In their only loss of the season to New England, the Cowboys still averaged +.6 ypplay better than New England.

5. San Diego- Willing to wait out this Chargers funk just a little bit longer, but this team has regressed by 50 ypg on BOTH offense and defense off of last levels.

6. New York Giants- The G-Men have given up less points in their last 6 games than they did in their first two. However, their last 6 opponents were Washington, Philadelphia, NY Jets, Atlanta, San Francisco, and Miami. The next 3 games will be the real litmus test as they play Dallas, Detroit, and Minnesota. G-Men lead the league with 30 sacks.

7. Green Bay- Not too often do you see a team dead last in the NFL in rushing (72ypg) sitting at 7-1 SU/6-1-1$. Pack riding Favre’s arm and rock solid defense, and the schedule has been respectable as well.

8. Baltimore- The Ravens aren’t as bad as they looked in Pittsburgh, and I expect to see some life once they get healthy. The main problem is red zone offense, as only the Rams are worse than Baltimore at scoring TD’si inside the 20. Poor QB play may keep this team out of the playoffs.

9. Tennessee- Titans lead the league with 20 field goals, but with the way their defense has been playing, field goals have been enough. They are no 14-3-1$ their last 18 games as the underdog.

10. Jacksonville- The Jaguars finish up the league’s only 3 game road trip this week in Tennessee. David Garrard threw ZERO interceptions in 5.5 games under center, Quinn Gray has thrown 5 in 2.5 games.

11. Washington- Skins’ safety tandem of Sean Taylor and rookie Laron Landry is the league’s hardest hitting safety duo. Jason Campbell has looked very good at times, and can make almost every throw there is, but its almost as the ‘Skins won’t take off the training wheels. Only 6 teams in the NFL throw it less than Washington.

12. New Orleans- In their first 4 games of the season, the Saints defense had recorded 2 interceptions, had 1 sack, and force 0 fumbles. In their last 4, they have 4 picks, 12 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles. I still think the Halos are overrated, but Sean Payton remains among the league’s best red zone play callers.

13. Detroit- Lions definitely an improved bunch, but I’m not ready to lock them up as a sure playoff team just yet. Against the 2 best teams on their schedule, the Redskins, and Eagles (not exactly the league’s elite), the Giants have lost by a combined 66 points. Detroit is also the league’s most fortunate team in terms of opponents’ missed field goals…Teams have made only 5 of 14 against the Lions.

14. Philadelphia- Eagles are +32 yards/game, yet sit at 3-5 SU/ATS. Once again this season, they are actually playing better away from home, and perhaps this is the week they get things turned around as they are excellent 22-8$ on the road playing with revenge.

15. Denver- Broncos have played a flat out brutal schedule, as only one of their opponents is below .500 at this point. Jay Cutler impressed me in the two games before his injury, and Denver could be a real value team down the stretch, especially once John Lynch and Jevon Walker get back in this lineup.

16. Houston- The extended absence of Andre Johnson really hurt this team, as did the late bye with all injuries they had. Look for them to be a play-on team down the stretch with the return of Johnson and QB Schaub.

17. Tampa Bay- Bucs’ defense looking like the old Bucs’ defense at 286 ypg and 4.8ypplay (#3 in league). Jeff Garcia has not thrown an interception in 8 of his 9 games this year. 3-way platoon at RB between Graham, Pittman, and Bennett may just be good enough to get this team to the playoffs.

18. Arizona- I was a firm believer in the Cards’ improvement, and then came the clunker at Tampa off of the bye. Their game this week against Detroit at home will define them as contender or pretender. The Good: Zona leads the league in Red Zone TD %. The Bad: Only Oakland and Minnesota have gotten to the Red Zone less.

19. Chicago- The Bears’ defense is 1.0ypplay, 51ypg, and 7ppg worse than last season. Sure, injuries were a viable excuse early on, but many of those players have returned.

20. Seattle- Shaun Alexander is simply hard to watch nowadays, as there is nothing left in the tank. Besides rushing the passer (23 sacks) and kicking field goals (Josh Brown 16-17), the Seahawks really don’t do anything well. They’re only 4-10$ their last 14 road games.

21. Cleveland- The suprising Browns have 27 TD’s this season, after logging 25 all of last season. However, none of their wins have come over teams with a winning record, and 4 of their victims have combined for 4 wins. They are the only team other than the Colts that have been within 10 of New England at the 12 minute mark of the 4th quarter, though. Big test this week, as they are 0-8 SU/ATS their last 8 vs. Pittsburgh.

22. Minnesota- The Vikings are the only team in the NFL this season to outrush every opponent this season. 5.8 ypr is a Navy or West Virginia type average, and not something I would want to fade very often. At the same time, I’d be leery of the public overvaluing this team because of Adrian Peterson as this team is still has major quarterback issues.

23. Kansas City- The Chiefs are 1st in the league in red zone defense as they’ve allowed opponents to score only 5 TDs in 18 trips into the red zone. However, the loss of Larry Johnson along with a shaky kicking game that has missed a league-high 3 FG’s from less than 40 yds, has me thinking more UNDER than PLAY ON.

24. Cincinnati- The Bengals are dead last in the league in ypplay defense (6.2) and 31st in ypg defense at 397 ypg. They welcome back Chris Henry from suspension this week, but that injury list is still very lengthy.

25. Carolina- Another team that can’t stay out of the infirmary, and sad to see MLB Dan Morgan out for the season yet again, as he may have played his last game in the NFL.

26. Buffalo- Bills playing with as much heart and energy as any team in the league, and that has lead to 4 wins in 5 games with 5 straight ATS wins. Jauron should be a coach-of-the-year candidate, with all of the injuries Buffalo has had to endure. They’ve actually outyarded their last 2 opponents after being outyarded in the first 6 games. Special Teams are some of the leagues’ best.

27. Oakland- Suprisingly, the Raiders are 4th in the NFL in rushing at 140 ypg. However, they have regressed 50 ypg on defense from last year’s stellar level.

28. NY Jets- The Jets and Leon Washington are tied with Devin Hester and Chicago with 3 Special Teams touchdowns on the season. However, New York so bad that they still can’t cover at 2-5-1$. Clemons has shown some good things, but will undergo normal growing pains.

29. San Francisco- Alex Smith still grabbing his arm after many throws, and the Niners are the only team in the league that has been outyarded in every single game this season. They do lead the league in net punting, but are dead last with an ugly 4.2ypplay on offense.

30. Atlanta- Falcons actually tied with Detroit for NFC lead at +8 in turnover margin, which explains their 5-3 ATS mark despite 2-6 record. Was looking forward to seeing more Jerious Norwood in the 2nd half, but ankle injury has slowed his rise to lead back status.

31. Miami- Miami has come back from deficits in their last 3 losses, and will continue to play hard with veterans like Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor still around. The Dolphins and Rams are the 22nd and 23rd teams to start 0-8 since 1980, with previous teams going 33-18-1$ up until their first win.

32. St.Louis- That being said, God Bless You if you back this bunch. The Rams are without their ENTIRE STARTING offensive line, the second most important position in this league. They are a two- minute backdoor drive and subsequent successful 2 pt. conversion away from being a perfect 0-8 SU/ATS, but that meaningless dink and dunk down the field netted them the cover against Arizona.


 


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