Juvenile Fillies: My play was on Her Majesty. When she refused to enter the starting gate, I knew she had no shot. It took a good 5 minutes for the assistant starters to get her in. That meant she was nervous, and when that happens horses are not focused on running and basically have no shot in the race. The addition of blinkers did not help her gate problems like I thought they would. She finished 13th at odds of 8-1.

Juvenile: We cashed here with Street Sense. Off at odds of 15-1, he paid $32.40, $12.60, $8.00. He broke well (could have made the lead) but Borel took him back to last. Not what I expected, and when he checked on the far turn, I cursed him a little more. Turning for home I knew he was a cinch. He pulled away and won by 10 lengths.

Filly & Mare Turf: Ran 2nd with Film Maker. She went off at odds of 8-1 and paid $5.80 and $4.40. She ran gamely on the inside, but Ouija Board proved to be too much once again.

Sprint: I didn’t have much of a feel for this race. I knew the closers would be running late and that’s what happened. My analysis did have Friendly Island mentioned, but my strict rule of not playing NY bred horses in open company prevented me from recommending him. He ran 2nd at odds of 58-1. Huge cash in this race by my old man as he hit the tri that paid $10, 611.80. Oh yeah!

Mile: I made two plays in here; Echo of Light and Rob Roy. Echo of Light never made the lead like I hoped. Turning for home he was 3rd by a head but faded real fast and ended up dead last. Rob Roy went off at odds of 23-1 and was flying late but ran out of real estate and finished 5th. He was 10 wide in the lane and lost too much ground. He only lost the race by 3 lengths and missed 2nd by a few necks. Congrats to DRF’s Dave Tuley for his selection on winner Miesque’s Approval who paid $50.60. Dave, I thought I was “Mr. Turf?”

Distaff: The most disappointing race of the day. I absolutely loved Asi Siempre. She went off at odds of 11-1. She was by far, the best horse in the race hands down. She had no running room turning for home and got shut off when she tried to split horses. She was weaving in and out but couldn’t get through. With the trouble, she still ran 2nd. However, she was disqualified and placed 4th. No racing luck.

Turf: Throwing out the favorite, I recommended a 3 horse box with a win bet on Better Talk Now. We cashed big with the Red Rocks – Better Talk Now exacta. That combo paid $450.80. Better Talk Now went off at odds of 18-1 and just got beat by a ½ length. Nice score for us in this race.

Classic: Never one to bet favorites, Bernardini was not on one of my tickets. I liked a 4 horse box of George Washington, Invasor, Flower Alley, and Sun King. Invasor was (in retrospect) an overlay at nearly 7-1. He won in-hand and paid $15.40. GW was our next closest running 6th. The other two never ran a lick. Kicking myself for no win bet on Invasor.

To be honest (not sure I should be saying this), but I spent a lot more time handicapping the horses than college football last week. College selections split out at 3-3, but Sunday’s NFL was another big payday for us. Early Sunday morning, I received a call from a long time client. He was complimenting me on our success in the Breeders’ Cup, and then asked me if I was serious about playing Miami on the money line. It just so happened that I had just made that wager right before he called. I told him that, and then stated that I might look like an idiot after the game, but I really think they will win the game outright. The 7-1 shot Dolphins came through for us, and we netted another long shot over the weekend. Jim, I hope you followed through and played the Fish.

Stats are often overused by many when handicapping games. Just because one team should do this or that as their past stats indicate doesn’t mean it will happen in a particular game. A better way to use stats is to see how the game was actually played after it goes final. There will be many times when your team dominates the stats, but loses the game and fails to cover the spread. That has been the case for a few of my recent Late Phone selections. A couple of weeks back, Florida St won yardage 458-223 against Maryland and lost 27-24. Maryland only had 3 first downs and a total of 37 yards in the 2nd half and still won. How did FSU lose? The wind was gusting around 40 MPH and Maryland was able to take advantage of field position when they had the wind at their back. Every scoring drive started in FSU territory. Another “inside-out” win for Maryland. In 6 of their 7 wins, Maryland has been out-yarded. That shows that stats are for the most part meaningless as far as who wins and loses a game. Take advantage of this by playing against Maryland as a favorite (1-3 ATS). Hmmm, they’re laying 2 to Miami Fla this week.