Ai Simulator 3* graded play on UNDER Pittsburgh/Cleveland – AiS shows a 73% probability that 44 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 31-9 for a remarkable 78% since 1983. Play under with any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points off a home win, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season. 25-year systems stand the test of time and are generally more rare than other shorter term systems. In fact, I have statistically shown in several published reports that systems of 10+ years and more have an increasing mathematical relevance the more years that it has been a valid money maker. Let’s not forget however, that the sole reason we are making this play is due to the Ai S grading. The supporting cast of systems, and angles, and matchup research serve only to reinforce the play. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 89-40 for 69% UNDER since 1983. Play under with any team in a conference game against the total that was marginal winning team from last season sporting a winning percentage of 51% to 60% playing a team that had a winning record. Now, let’s take a look at some of the fundamental reason why this is a solid UNDER play. In past meetings (Steelers have won 15 of the past 17) the Browns have attempted to pressure Steeler QB Roethlisberger with a variety and steady dose of blitz schemes. The defensive strategy has not worked well enough and the Brows will undoubtedly adopt a defensive game plan that bends but does not break. The Eagles defense under DC Johnson has done this for the past several seasons. It essentially is to allow the opposition to move the ball in little chunks and then tighten up dramatically as the offense approaches the red zone. This is effective because the end zone acts as a backboard and the defense becomes less concerned with the deep routes. The Texans did this last week and kept Roethlisberger and the Steeler offense from making huge plays and exploiting any blitz that was minimized by the OL. The Steelers will want to control the LOS with the punishing running game. Parker had an excellent game last week and it was based on running at the interior line and then bounding out to the side lines for additional yards. Cleveland has the personnel that will be disciplined enough NOT to collapse on the initial OL surge and will prevent the bounce to the perimeter. The exact same game plan will occur when Cleveland has the ball and the Steelers will be even more effective in preventing scoring drives. Cleveland has to reply on executing pass routes and this will prove difficult against the Steeler secondary.
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