UCLA (1) vs. Mississippi Valley St. (16)

Ben Howland has taken the Bruins to back-to-back Final Fours and he’ll be looking for the hat trick this year. UCLA has been ultra consistent, especially on the defensive end as they allow just 59 points per game. A key to that defense is that they put teams on the FT line only 13.5 times/game (Only Drake and Wisconsin are better in this tourney), despite the tremendous perimeter pressure that they apply. They are actually a better offensive club than in past seasons, as well, due to the presence of Kevin Love. Keep an eye on the injury status of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute who missed their last game with a sprained left ankle, as well as Love, who suffered from backs spasms in the Pac-10 tourney. Reports are good thus far, and if that continues to be the case, the Bruins can go a long way in this tourney.

Mississippi Valley State won the SWAC tournament to earn the automatic bid, but don’t expect much from the Delta Devils even if Jerry Rice would come back and give it a go on the hardwood. They played three games against tourney teams this season, losing by a combined 110 points, including a 71-26 (+ 32) thumping at another Pac-10 team, Washington State. The Pick: UCLA by 32, but monitor Love and Mbah a Moute's status

BYU (8) vs. Texas A&M (9)

BYU plays tenacious defense holding opponents to 38.6 percent from the floor (ninth in the country) and 29.5 percent from 3-point land (fifth in the country). The Cougars played well in out-of-conference games as they beat Louisville, and hung tough against North Carolina (10-point loss) and Michigan St (7-point loss). Their only weakness statistically is at the FT line where they shoot 65.8%. Lucky for them they drew one of the 7 teams in this tournament that are worse than them at the charity stripe.

Texas A&M is a mirror image of BYU, statistically. The Aggies are great defensively allowing 39.3 percent from the floor (16th in the country), and like BYU, cannot hit free throws (63.7 percent). A&M did get to the Sweet 16 last year, so they have the experience edge in this spot. However, despite returning talent on hand, this team has seemingly lacked the killer instinct that was present when the Gillespie/Law combo ran the show. They also faced only 2 teams in this tourney in non-conference play, and their defensive FG% rose considerably during Big 12 play. The Pick: BYU by 1

Drake (5) vs. Western Kentucky (12)

The Bulldogs were one of the most profitable teams in the country this year going 20-7-1$. Drake shoots a ton a threes per game (28), but amazingly, their point guard Adam Emmenecker (Missouri Valley POY) has never attempted one in his four years. They are an extremely intelligent bunch of kids that creates matchup problems for opposing defenses because most of the time all 5 players on the court are capable of hitting from the perimeter. They rank 6th in the nation in Pomeroy's offensive efficiency numbers! The Missouri Valley is on a 21-10$ run in the 1st two rounds of this tourney.

Western Kentucky is a well balanced team that can score on offense (76.8 points per game), and plays good defense (65.2 points per game). Their perimeter defense is excellent at 32% 3FG and .65 assist/TO, and that could be key to them springing a possible upset today. Nice mid-major showdown. The Pick: Drake by 4

UConn (5) vs. San Diego (12)

Head coach Jim Calhoun is no stranger to winning tournament games, and his team has a nice inside-outside combo that could win them a couple of games. 7-foot Hasheem Thabeet (4.4 blocks per game) mans the paint while A.J. Price (5.9 assists per game) runs the point. Be careful with the Huskies though as they were just 2-7 against the spread as a road favorite this season. Despite Thabeet's presence, and pesty guards that can pressure the ball, they suprisingly waiver at times on the defensive end.

San Diego upset Gonzaga to win the WCC tournament and steal a bid. The Toreros like to play a slow, half-court game which has resulted in them going 12-4 to the number as an underdog. However, they did benefit from homecourt to win that tournament, and the linesmaker was not fooled as I was hoping for single digits. Their offense isn’t all that good, but PG Brandon Johnson can take over a game. Problem is UConn has a lot of guards that they can throw at Johnson, and this game isn't played in San Diego. UConn by 12

Bottom Half- All games played at Washington D.C.

Baylor(11) vs. Purdue (6)

The Baylor Bears are a team that I didn't think did quite enough to get into this tournament, after losing to Colorado in Double OT in the Big 12 Tournament. However, one of the keys to making money in this tournament is to be a handicapper instead of a "bracketologist", and in all honesty Baylor is a tough matchup for alot of teams because they are a true streak-shooting club, and when they are "on" they can play with most teams in the country. They play at the nation's 23rd rated adjusted pace according to Ken Pomeroy, and sped things up even more during conference play, as they were often outmanned on the inside. They are exciting to watch, with multiple players capable of making 3s (22 3FG attempts/game) and finishing with style. Curtis Jerrell's 15 ppg leads 3 others averaging over 12 ppg, and they have a puncher's chance against anyone because of their firepower. They are also very strong from the FT line at 74% as a team.

Purdue is similar to Baylor in that they always have 3 guards on the court at the same time, and sometimes even 4. They also exhibit excellent scoring balance with 9 players averaging between 4 and 13 ppg. They thrive on their defensive pressure, and if they can keep this game at a reasonable pace, they have the perimeter defenders to make Baylor play "sloppy", as the Boil is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers at 17 per game. PG Chris Kramer (70 steals) and Swingman Rob Hummell are throwback types that get it done on both ends of the court. Coach Matt Painter did a terriffic job with a team that almost every expert predicted for the bottom half of the Big 10, and they really improved as the season went on. The key for us as handicappers is to gauge whether that improvement was as drastic as it seemed, or the Big 10 was just that weak. Painter's squad looks legit with a sweep of Wisconsin under their belt. They have the basketball IQ and style to beat Baylor, but it must be noted that the Bears guards excel at making tough shots, whether it be from a couple steps behind the arc, or in unorthodox fashion in the lane. If those shots are falling, this one could truly can go either way. Neither team fell off when playing on the road this season, as Baylor was 10-3 ATS and Purdue was 9-4-1. The pick: Purdue by 5

Xavier (3) vs. Georgia (14)

Kudos to Dennis Felton's Georgia Bulldog team, winning 4 SEC tourney games, including an unprecedented 3 in 2 days (all over teams in this tourney) to take home the championship, and win their way into the Big Dance. The question is, do they have anything left for an encore? Teams that win 3 or more consectuive games as an underdog to win their way into the tourney are long-term play against propositions, and the Bulldogs did have the benefit of playing the SEC tourney in their home state (albeit a couple of different venues). The fact that they made the tournament after losing their top 2 scorers from last season because of off-the-court issues, and 2 more of the top 9 in the rotation (4 of the top 9 altogether), really makes it wonder "what could have been" with this team. They defend fairly well, but can be had inside. Their shot selection is also very questionable, although it obviously much better in Atlanta.

Xavier made things look extremely easy all year in an underrated Atlantic 10. They are led by 4 seniors who have made the NCAA tourney each of the last two seasons (Drew Lavender was on board only last season, but has NCAA tourney experience with Oklahoma before that), including taking Ohio St. to overtime last March in a game they really should have won. This team is one of only 14 in the country to rate in the top 30 in Pomeroy's offensive and defensive efficiency (points per possession), and they can beat you both outside and inside, and are capable of playing both fast and slow. The Minutemen take offensive balance to a new level, with 6 players averaging between 10 and 11.7 ppg. Sean Miller is one of the bright young coaches in the game, and he'll have his team ready after an early exit in Atlantic City. Georgia has some talent, but it was far from a banner year in the SEC, and the Bulldogs won only 2 of 13 before their SEC tourney run. Wouldn't be suprise if they come back to earth when they get out of the Peach State. The pick: Xavier by 9

West Virginia (7) vs. Arizona (10)

Bobby Huggins did an excellent job of adapting the returning WVU talent to a totally different style this season, and the results were excellent as the Mountaineers, like Xavier, are one of only 14 teams to rank in the nation's top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency. They kept their same great assist/turnover ratio on both sides of the ball (1.43 and .74, both among the nation's best) from the John Beilein days, but now they are actually a positive rebounding team (actually around dead even in the rugged Big East) as well. This team won last season's NIT, and there is some experience abound from the Sweet 16 team from two seasons ago. It will be interesting to see if Huggy Bear can continue the ATS post success of Belien, who went 13-1-1$ in the two tournies the last 4 seasons. Not a lot of household names on this team, but they are extremely high on basketball IQ, led by underrated PG Darris Nichols.

Arizona was hampered by multiple injuries throughout the course of the season, but they are 16-5 SU/12-5-1 $ when the freshman backcourt of Jerryd Bayless and Nic Wise are both in the lineup. This team has plenty of firepower, but defense is often an issue, and they must buckle down to handle the offensive versatility of many of West Virginia's players. There are probably 4 future NBA players on this team, and the best may be yet to come. The question is: Is the future now? Two rather similar teams. The pick: WVU by 2, Lean to Over 135.5 at this time.

Duke (2) vs. Belmont (15)

In a subregion full of basketball IQ and perimeter play, the Duke Blue Devils rate as high as any team in the country in both categories. Duke is all about defensive tenacity especially on the perimeter, and their offense revolves around the FT stripe (70% on 24 FTA/game) and 3 pt. line (38% on 25 attempts/game). They have 5 players that average double digits, but it must be noted that they are not playing their best basketball right now, going 7-4 SU/3-7-1$ down the stretch after starting out 22-1/15-6-1$ with the only loss coming by 1 to Pitt at Madison Square Garden. The reason for that may be fatigue as they've played at a scorching pace all season, with only a moderately a deep team. They also lack a true inside scorer.

None of this should hurt them against a Belmont Bruin team that is rather smallish and plays a perimeter game themselves. This is an example of two teams playing the same time style, only one team plays it much, much better. The Bruins rely heavily on the 3 pointer (36% on 29 attempts/game), but as mentioned above Duke's perimeter defense is as good as it gets (32% 3FG, 18 forced TO/game). Belmont did play a rugged out of conference schedule with wins at Cincy and at Alabama, but from a stylistic point of view, this seems like a tough matchup for them. Still, they have won 13 straight games and this is their 3rd straight NCAA tourney appearance, so they won't be starstruck. Until I learn a little more about them, and how they sprung those OOC upsets, I'll call this one right around the number. The Pick: Duke by 19

Looking Ahead

I really believe this is the easiest of the 4 roads for the #1 seed to get through. The second round game won't be a cakewalk, especially if its BYU, and they are making their 3s, but UCLA should have too much for either of those teams. Duke can beat anyone in the nation, especially in a close game, but again Howland is one of the few coaches that is not in a disadvantage on gameday against Coach K and he has the better team. The Blue Devils' road is very tough,and it would not shock me to see them get ousted early. Even though I picked against Arizona in round 1, the game is a true tossup for me, and the Wildcats a true sleeper now that they are healthy. Purdue plays a very similar game to Duke, should they get through. Again, the bottom half of this bracket is brutal.

Sweet 16 Predictions: UCLA, Drake, Xavier (barely over Purdue), and Duke

Elite 8 Predictions: UCLA, Xavier

Final Four: UCLA