Articles by Big Al McMordie |
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Inside Baseball Trends |
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Big Al McMordie Jun 27, 2008 |
Baseball is unique for sports bettors because teams play in very different parks. Some parks are huge, perfect for pitchers (Seattle, Oakland, NY Mets) with large outfields and plenty of foul ground for extra pop outs. Other parks (many more so these days) are small, hitter-friendly places (Fenway, Philly, Pittsburgh, Skydome, Jacobs Field, Houston).
Stats and parks can help some trends s ...
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Handicapping Baseball Defense |
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Big Al McMordie Jun 19, 2008 |
It's important for a team to have strong defense at key positions such as outfield, shortstop and catcher. Defense at centerfield, shortstop and catcher are where the term "Strong up the middle comes from." Good teams use defense to assist their pitching, turn double plays and help keep team ERAs down.
From a betting standpoint, defense can be linked to totals along with the overall te ...
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Rise and Fall of AL Totals |
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Big Al McMordie Jun 12, 2008 |
Successful handicappers need to keep track daily of changes in baseball of things that may influence the side and total of a game. The Red Sox, for instance, went three straight games under the total when slugger David Ortiz went on the shelf with a wrist injury. When they got shut out by the Mariners as a -150 home favorite, they were without Ortiz, leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury, and Manny Ramir ...
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Back to the Future |
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Big Al McMordie Jun 2, 2008 |
There's no doubt what the theme of the 2008 NBA Finals is: Back to the Future! Celtics/Lakers is going to have producers combing through archival NBA playoff footage from the 60s and 80s, with Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain crashing the boards, and Larry Bird and Magic Johnson running the break in their short shorts.
It was always billed as a clash of cultures, as well, with East versus W ...
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NBA Playoff Notes: Adjustments and Defense |
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Big Al McMordie May 25, 2008 |
For the record, 75% of NBA teams in a 1-1 series that win Game 3 go on to win that series. That will give a little comfort to the Celtics after their surprisingly easy win in Game 3. It is already shaping up as an odd series. After home teams dominated the last round, the Celtics and Pistons then saw the road team win two of the first three games.
Detroit stole the all-important home court ...
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Baseball's Post Steroid Era. |
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Big Al McMordie May 18, 2008 |
It’s not your imagination: Nobody is scoring runs! Home runs are down 20% from two years ago. It’s tough to clarify exactly why this is the case, but one answer might be cool weather. Historically home run hitters start slow as April and May have cooler weather, which helps pitchers. Sluggers don’t normally get cooking until the hot summer months.
Still, a more likely culprit would be steroi ...
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What's Wrong With.... |
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Big Al McMordie May 11, 2008 |
Each baseball season expectations are strong for most teams, at least as far as improvement. Then the season starts. Suddenly, things don’t go quite according to plan. Some teams play better than expected, others stumble through hitting slumps or injuries. Fortunately, it’s only May, so there is plenty of time to get things straightened out. Here’s a look at several disappointing teams.
Me ...
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NBA Playoffs Strategic Adjustments |
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Big Al McMordie May 4, 2008 |
It's the time of the season where NBA coaches REALLY earn their money. The NBA Playoffs is largely about three key points: Talent, defense, and adjustments. Naturally, you can't win without talent on the court. Defense is another key, as well as strategic adjustments by the coaching staff. If you don't think coaching strategy is that important, think again. The Spurs and coach Gregg Popovich h ...
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NBA Stretch Run Notes |
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Big Al McMordie Apr 7, 2008 |
In the East, the Celtics and Pistons have wrapped up the No. 1 and 2 seeds. In the West, it’s a different story, with the Hornets, Spurs and Lakers all with a shot at No. 1. The amazing Hornets are certainly playing like a hungry team that wants that No. 1 slot, on a 9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS run. It will be their first postseason since 2004.
The Hornets have three tough games against the Jazz, Lakers ...
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Streaking/Slumping Toward the Finish Line |
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Big Al McMordie Mar 31, 2008 |
As we come down the home stretch of the NBA season, it’s a great time to utilize a different handicapping angle. Namely, are teams motivated to finish strong? Or have they given up? Teams fighting for playoff berths are the most obvious at being extra-motivated.
But other times, even teams with losing records can be motivated to finish the season at .500 or with a winning mark. On the flip s ...
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Down the Stretch |
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Big Al McMordie Mar 23, 2008 |
There are a couple of key points to keep in mind from a handicapping perspective as the NBA season begins to wind down. One is that this is the end of a long season. That means teams have had to endure a lot of road trips, airline flights, and all the difficulties that hinder a professional team away from home. Keep in mind that road trips can be very different early in the year, in mid-season and ...
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More Tourney Tips |
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Big Al McMordie Mar 10, 2008 |
If you didn't get enough madness this weekend, or were out of town, don't sweat it. You get to go mad all over again! This is a unique week as teams play for conference titles with trips to the postseason play at stake. One of the great parts of March tournament play is the amount of sidebars that can pop up with respect to handicapping. That is, tournament play offers bettors many different facto ...
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NCAA Tourney Tips |
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Big Al McMordie Mar 10, 2008 |
Many times during the season, and even in some conference tournament games, you can find teams that are less likely interested in wanting to play hard. That is, they know they’re going to get hammered, or they’ve slumped so badly down the stretch that they realize they have no shot at going anywhere in tourney play. In short, they’ve given up on the season or on a particular game where they are a ...
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Inside the Numbers |
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Big Al McMordie Feb 11, 2008 |
As we pass the mid-point of the NBA season, let's take a look at some overall season stats. What is a more important correlation, a good offense or good defense? Well, let's take a look at the highest scoring teams in the NBA: They are, in order, the Suns, Warriors, Lakers, Nuggets, Jazz and Magic. What stands out is that these are good teams in the postseason race, all with winning records. Howev ...
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NBA News and Notes |
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Big Al McMordie Feb 3, 2008 |
The Cavaliers ended up with a 14-point rout of the Clippers, 98-84. On the surface it appeared to be a one-sided game. However, a closer look reveals a different story. The victory was tougher than it should have been. LeBron James returned after sitting out last week's loss against the Seattle SuperSonics due to a sore right ankle. He wasn't 100 percent.
Even more revealing, the Cavs were ...
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The Wacky Season |
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Big Al McMordie Dec 2, 2007 |
Is there any doubt that whoever is #1 heading into the BCS title game will win? That’s because of the #2 curse in this crazy 2007 college football season. If the #2 team can’t even beat Stanford or Pitt, what chance does it have against #1? West Virginia’s shocking loss at home to Pitt only muddies the crazy national title picture. Which begs the questions: Does any college football team in Am ...
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Upsets and Bowl Runs |
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Big Al McMordie Nov 21, 2007 |
2007 has been the year of the upset in college football. It happened again this past weekend, with No. 2 ranked Oregon getting knocked out of the national title picture, followed by Oklahoma. And as we approach the final few weeks of the regular season, there are a lot of key games and teams off emotional highs and lows. This needs to be considered when handicapping games each week. A team ...
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Football's Emotional Ups and Downs |
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Big Al McMordie Oct 23, 2007 |
Emotion is an enormous angle to consider when handicapping football games. A fired up, focused team can wipe out a lot of bad stats that they may also possess. We saw this on Monday night a few weeks ago when the Bills hosted the Cowboys. It was the first Monday night game in years for the team and the fans of Buffalo, and they played inspired football for the whole game….or at least up unti ...
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Football Adjustments |
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Big Al McMordie Oct 12, 2007 |
It was a wild football weekend last week, and the biggest surprise (in my handicapping lifetime) was USC losing 24-23 to Stanford as an incredible 39-point favorite (and the odds were even higher than that mid-week), ending the Trojans’ 35-game home winning streak. As far as odds are concerned, it was the biggest upset in college football history. It appeared Syracuse pulled off the biggest upse ...
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Football's Upset Weekend |
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Big Al McMordie Oct 1, 2007 |
There’s a reason they play the games, of course: You never know! That was certainly evident after this past weekend’s slate of wild games and crazy upsets. This past weekend the dogs were in full force in both the colleges and the pros.
It started with a Friday game as mighty West Virginia was a road favorite at South Florida. But this is a talented South Florida program on the rise under ...
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Football Flops |
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Big Al McMordie Sep 17, 2007 |
We just started the pro and college football seasons and several teams are playing up to expectations: USC and LSU in college; the Cowboys, Colts, and Steelers in the NFL. Preseason analysis was accurate in regards to how those teams have thus far played. But what about the flops? There are several teams that have been huge disappointments, and here’s a peek at what’s ailing some of them.
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Early NFL: What To Look For |
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Big Al McMordie Sep 3, 2007 |
The best time of the sports year kicks off this week as we begin the NFL season. From preseason play and recent history we can get a good idea about some of the strengths and weaknesses of several teams.
If you like to play totals keep in mind that the Washington Redskins are 4-0 under the total the last four years in their regular season opener. Washington has a two-headed coaching monster ...
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NFL Preseason: Angry Coaches |
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Big Al McMordie Aug 20, 2007 |
The offenses sure went crazy in Week 2 of the NFL preseason, which usually isn’t the case. There were high scoring games everywhere, with the overs going 11-4 (after the unders went 9-8 in Week 1). Some teams are turning it up a notch offensively, like San Diego and Jacksonville. The Chargers have a new head coach in Norv Turner, an offensive coach, and he’s been spreading the field with his up-te ...
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Week 1 Preseason: Offense Takes A Holiday |
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Big Al McMordie Aug 12, 2007 |
If you’re a fan of offense, Week 1 of the NFL preseason wasn’t for you. There wasn’t much scoring, which is usually the case. The unders had the edge again, starting 8-3 before a flurry of late Saturday games finally featured some scoring. In fact, one year ago preseason games started 9-4-1 under the total, so this is nothing new.
There were as many lowlights as highlights. Daunte Culpepper ...
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NFL Preseason Notes |
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Big Al McMordie Aug 6, 2007 |
We start the first full weekend of preseason football and there are plenty of betting angles and trends to digest. Granted, preseason football doesn’t mean much for the teams, especially the first week. Starters barely play, and the key is to evaluate the kids and avoid injuries. I heard an NFL scout recently say that preseason is all about depth: Evaluating who you have and whether you should kee ...
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NFL Season Over/Unders |
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Big Al McMordie Jul 26, 2007 |
With the NFL season just around the corner, this is good time to look at what might happen this fall on the gridiron. Future numbers are out for each team. A year ago in this column I looked at the Minnesota Vikings: “New coach Brad Childress inherits a mess. They have unloaded stars WR Randy Moss and QB Daunte Culpepper in each of the last two offseasons. QB Brad Johnson turns 38 in September. Th ...
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Pitchers, Injuries and Overuse |
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Big Al McMordie Jun 27, 2007 |
When wagering on baseball, pay extra attention to pitchers who are coming off injury stints and ones off starts where they threw a lot of pitches. A few weeks ago Curt Schilling pitched a complete game at Oakland, one where he lost a no-hit bid with two outs in the ninth. He wanted it, of course, and really put forth the extra effort in the eighth and ninth to try to get the no-no.
That’ ...
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Super Bowl XLI |
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Big Al McMordie Jan 29, 2007 |
So, do the Bears have a chance? Only two of the last nine NFC Champions won the Super Bowl, and oddsmakers see the Colts as a significant favorite. The key will be defense, with the Bears having the No. 5 overall defense. But this is no ordinary offense, as the Colts rank No. 2 in total offense and passing (27 points, 268 yards passing per game) behind QB Peyton Manning (31 TDs, 9 INTs), TE Dallas ...
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College Basketball Breakdown |
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Big Al McMordie Jan 25, 2007 |
The Florida Gators are riding high, still celebrating the school’s national football title a few weeks ago, which came less than a year after the basketball team finished No. 1. Last week Florida had a wild win, holding off an improbable Ole Miss comeback, down 25 points in the second half against the No. 1 team in the country. Instead, Florida retained its slim lead and finished with a 79-70 wi ...
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Coaches in the NFL Post Season |
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Big Al McMordie Jan 8, 2007 |
Last week I looked at the records of several NFL head coaches in the postseason. Given what took place over the weekend, it’s worth taking this a step further and analyzing what happens when the merits of difference head coaches square off in the postseason. It will be interesting to see what Saints coach Sean Payton has up his sleeve this weekend. He was voted Coach of the Year and deserved ...
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Handicapping the Bowls |
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Big Al McMordie Dec 25, 2006 |
Bowl season is in full swing. From a wagering standpoint, you have to approach bowls a little differently than regular season games. One reason is that teams often don’t have any common opponents and play against different conferences, which can make examining match-ups tricky. For instance, last week BYU of the Mountain West conference was playing a Pac-10 school, Oregon. On the one hand, over ...
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NFL Down the Stretch |
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Big Al McMordie Dec 14, 2006 |
As we enter the last few weeks of the NFL season, is it better to be playing excellent football, or does it even matter? A year ago at this time the Colts were the favorite to win the Super Bowl with the best record in the NFL and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. There were questions as to whether it was better for coach Tony Dungy to rest his starters and coast the rest of the way, ...
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2nd Half Wagering |
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Big Al McMordie Dec 7, 2006 |
It was a wild weekend for football. In college, USC’s upset loss to UCLA sent the BCS title match-up into confusion, while in the NFL there were two safeties and a ton of turnovers in a sloppy Sunday that must have had offensive coaches pulling their hair out. Chicago QB Rex Grossman completed 6 passes and threw three interceptions, and his team STILL covered as a 9-point favorite! Sometimes it ...
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