I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I successfully played on the Reds in all three of their victories over the Marlins (yesterday's game was postponed) and I expect them to carry their positive momentum into this evening's "instate rivalry" vs. the Indians. I also expect them to have the edge on the mound. Yes, the Indians have made up for their surprisingly poor hitting by great starting pitching of late. Sowers hasn't been part of that though, as he's only made one start and he didn't get a decision, lasting only 5 1/3 innings while recording a 5.07 ERA and 1.501 WHIP. Sowers is surely happy to get another crack at the starting rotation. However, he can't be too pleased that his second start is coming against Cincinnati. Indeed, in three starts against the Reds, he's gone 0-2 with an awful 9.60 ERA and 1.6 WHIP. He's averaged just five innings in those three starts and he gave up two home runs in each of them. Cueto, on the other hand, will have the advantage of facing the Indians for the first time. The Reds' rookie got roughed up on the road (vs. the Mets) last time out. He's pitched well at home though, averaging nearly seven innings per start, going 2-1 while recording a solid 3.67 ERA with an excellent 0.963 WHIP. Cueto will be supported by a relief corps which has managed an excellent 2.97 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 60+ innings of work here at Cincinnati. Given their past history of success against Sowers and the fact that they scored 20 runs in three games against the Marlins, the Reds should also give Cueto some run support to work with. Since the 2006 season, the Indians are 19-28 (-6.8) when playing on the road with a line ranging from +100 to +125. During the same stretch, the Reds are 29-19 (+7.6) when playing at home with a line ranging from +100 to -125. Look for the Reds to build on those stats here, improving to 7-5 the last dozen times they were a host in this series. *Rivalry GOM

I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. The Dodgers have won two in a row while the Angels have dropped two straight. The Angels still have the better overall record though and I expect them to have the advantage in tonight's series opener. Kurodo has been decent. However, he's still just 1-2 on the season with the Dodgers going 4-4. Saunders, on the other hand, has been exceptional and is 6-1 on the season. The Angels were 7-1 in those games and Saunders recorded a stellar 2.48 ERA and 1.123 WHIP. Note that he's got a miniscule 1.42 ERA at night. The Angels are 4-0 in his four home starts this season and they're 14-4 in his home starts dating back to September of 2006. The Angels, who always had success against Joe Torre when he was with the Yankees, tied for the best record in Interleague play last season, going 14-4. That included a 5-1 mark against the Dodgers. The Dodgers were 5-10 in interleague play last season and are a horrific 4-23 their last 27 IL road games overall. Look for them to have trouble with Saunders, falling to 1-9 the last 10 times they faced the Angels on the road.

I'm taking the points with BOSTON. The Celtics' struggles on the road in these playoffs have been extremely well documented. That's given us excellent line value with what I expect will be an extremely determined Celtics team. Let's not forget that this team was 31-10 on the road in the regular season, the best mark in the entire league. Not surprisingly, the Celtics are also 10-5 ATS as underdogs, winning nine of those games outright. Additionally, they're 5-2 ATS (6-1 SU) when playing a game with a total in the 170s, including a 3-1 ATS mark on the road. They'll face a Cleveland team which is 2-4 ATS (1-3 ATS at home) when playing a game with a total in the 170s and which will be without one of it's major weapons in Daniel Gibson. Note that Gibson had 14 points and made two 3-pointers, helping the Cavs to a win in the last game (Game 4) here. You may also recall Gibson's memorable performance in Game 6 of last year's Eastern Conference Finals vs. the Pistons. In that game, Gibson had 31 points, including 25 in the second half. In other words, he's a very valuable contributor and I expect him to be missed. As Lebron had to say: "It's something we didn't want to happen. It's kind of the tale of our season—a guy goes down in the heat of a playoff series. He's very key to our team. It's not good seeing a guy who is that key to your team in a suit." At least Lebron already has a pre-made excuse. The last time the Cavs faced elimination was also here at Cleveland, last year in their series vs. the Spurs. You may recall that they lost that game outright, scoring only 82 points. Look for them to struggle again tonight, falling to 4-11 ATS on Friday nights for the season.

I'm playing on SEATTLE. While both these teams are struggling, the Mariners are playing at home and bring some momentum into tonight's contest. While the Padres lost at Chicago yesterday, the Mariners, who had yesterday off, won an extra-inning game at Texas on Wednesday, snapping their skid and avoiding getting swept. Closer J.J. Putz noted the importance of that win, stating: "It's very big to win and go home. And then get ready for the Padres." The M's will face a San Diego lineup which struck out 29 times over the last two games and which has really struggled to score runs all season. Indeed, the Padres have the lowest batting average (.233) and score fewer runs (140) than any team in the big leagues. While neither starter's stats are very impressive, the Mariners are still 10-5 (2-2 this year) in Batista's last 15 home starts. The Padres are 1-3 in Young's road starts this season and 1-9 his last 10 road starts, dating back to last August. The Padres are 80-100 (-13.1) their last 180 interleague games, including a 13-17 mark the past two seasons. Conversely, the Mariners were 107-87 in IL play during the same stretch, including a profitable 23-13 (+10.5) mark since 2006. Look for them to improve on those stats with an important victory this evening.

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. The Giants lost a tough one yesterday but I look for them to bounce back with a win tonight. The Giants are a perfect 5-0 (+5.6) when Sanchez has started at home, most recently a 4-3 win over Philadelphia. During that 5-game stretch, he has a 2.79 ERA and 1.276 WHIP. On the other hand, the White Sox are 1-3 (-1.8) when Floyd has started on the road, most recently a 6-3 loss at Seattle. He gave up five runs in that start and has a 4.57 ERA and 1.431 WHIP on the road overall. While Sanchez is making his first start against the White Sox, its worth noting that he is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA is 12 career relief appearances in interleague play. Look for him to continue his success at home as the White Sox fall to 2-8 their last 10 games in a National League ballpark.

I'm playing on the Jazz and Lakers to finish UNDER the number. I lost with the 'under' in Game 5 of this series but that won't stop me from pulling the trigger in Game 6. A closer look at the last game shows that the final combined score only just barely snuck above the number and that was only due to the teams combining for a dozen points in the final 1:10. With the Jazz facing elimination, even if the teams match that output in the final minute of tonight's game, assuming we can avoid overtime, I still expect a much lower final combined score tonight. Including their 104-99 win here in Game 3, the Jazz have seen the UNDER go a perfect 4-0 the last four times they were listed as home favorites of -6 points or less. Game 4 didn't qualify as they closed as underdogs. Likewise, the UNDER is also a perfect 4-0 the last four times that the Lakers were listed as underdogs of six points or less. Overall, the UNDER was 14-7-1 when the Lakers were underdogs this season and 12-6 when they played a road game which had an over/under line of 210 or greater. Looking back a bit further and we find the UNDER at 18-9 the last 27 times the Lakers were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range and 22-12 the last 34 times that they played a road game which had an over/under line of 210 or greater. Jerry Sloan has been the coach of the Jazz for a long time. When trailing in a series, he's typically seen his teams respond with a strong defensive effort. In fact, the UNDER is a profitable 22-11 the last 33 times that the Jazz and were trailing in a playoff series. During the same stretch they also saw the UNDER go 69-49-4 when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. That includes last year's Game 6 here against Houston. The Jazz were also trailing that series 3-2 and were favored by roughly the same number of points that they are toniight. They responded with a dominant defensive effort and held the Rockets to just 82 points, a game which fell below the total. The only other time that the Jazz have ever played a home game, when trailing 3-2 in a series, was way back in the 1998 Finals vs. the Bulls. That game also fell below the number as the teams combined for just 173 points, with Michael Jordan hitting the winner in the final seconds. Look for tonight's game to be much lower-scoring than expected once again with the final combined score falling beneath the generous number. *Blue Chip

I'm laying the price with COLORADO. Its true that the Rockies have really underachieved thus far. I believe that the defending National League champs are better than their record indicates though and I expect them to make the most of the chance for a "fresh start" with the arrival of Interleague play. Note that the Rockies are 4-2 as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range this season and 36-23 (+4.2) in that role since 2006. During that stretch, the Twins have gone 18-32 (-12.8) as road underdogs in the +100 to +125 range, including a horrible 1-9 mark this season. Jimenez has a poor overall ERA. However, he's been much better of late as he has allowed three earned runs or less in three straight starts. Last time out, he allowed just five hits through 6 2/3 innings, recording an impressive 11 Ks. Blackburn has a decent overall ERA but, unlike Jimenez, he's been getting worse, rather than better. Over his last four starts he has a 5.40 ERA and has allowed 34 hits and seven walks in 25 innings for an ugly 1.64 WHIP. He's not particularly overpowering and is 0-1 with a 5.56 ERA in four road starts, allowing opposing hitters a .337 average. The Twins were 0-4 in those games. Keep in mind that he was 0-2 with a 12.71 ERA in limited innings (in relief) on the road last season. Of course, Coors Field can be a pretty intimidating venue for any pitcher, let alone one making his first appearance there. Jimenez doesn't seem to mind it here though. In fact, he tends to thrive in the 'thin air.' Indeed, he's allowed three earned runs or less in 11 of his 12 alltime starts at Coors Field, including nine straight dating back to last August. Not surprisingly, the Rockies have won four of his last five starts here. Look for Jimenez to outpitch Blackburn as the Rockies grab tonight's series opener and improve to 6-2 the last eight times that they hosted a team from the AL Central. *Personal Favorite.