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Matt Fargo
Fargo is ready for a solid rebound on Saturday following two setbacks on Friday! MLB Premium Plays are on a modest 2-1 +4 Unit-run and this Underdog Game of the Week will add to it! A new streak starts Saturday
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| With over 12 years of sports handicapping experience, my analysis, information and expert picks give you what you want.... winners! I’m not here claiming to be undefeated over the last 10 years and I’m not going to fill your head with any useless inside information, because it doesn't exist. I do my homework plain and simple and come up with the plays that give us the best chance of winning. When you win, we win. You will see that our angles, statistical analysis and handicapping approaches will make you a consistent winner. One of the most drawn on adages in sports handicapping is that it’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon. I cannot agree more. Consistency over the long haul is what every sports bettor should be interested in and that is what I provide. When the winning days outnumber the losing days by a large margin, I must be doing something right. Keep three things in mind when looking for sports service - Consistency, Honesty, and Integrity. You’ve found all three right here! |
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| Friday, May 16, 2008 |
| Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (NBA) - 8:00 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Point Spread: 2.5/-107 Boston Celtics |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
**NBA TOP PLAY** Eastern Conference GOW Can a road team finally break through with a victory? You would think that one team that will do that is the Celtics as they are no strangers at winning games away from home. The team with the best record in basketball has now lost all five road playoff games but now is the time to break out of that slump. Boston went a league-best 31-10 in away games during the regular season so it certainly knows what it takes to win on the road. Simply put, they are hands down the better team.
The loss of Daniel Gibson is big and not just because of his contributions as inexperience will be taking over. Cavaliers coach Mike Brown said Gibson's minutes could be divvied up among the current eight-man rotation, or fall to guards Devin Brown and Damon Jones. Brown, a starter at the end of the regular season, has played a total of six minutes in this series, while Jones played only 13 minutes in three playoff games against Washington.
Nationally, the Celtics aren't receiving much respect these days. But it's not fair when you consider how the Lakers, the Jazz, the Hornets, the Cavaliers and the Spurs have played on the road. In the Celtics' case, they have lost their aggressiveness on the road, and aggressive defense is the exact thing that led to victory in Game Five. Now Boston needs to bring that aggressiveness on the road. Even though Game Seven is at home, the Celtics to not want to have to play it as rest is becoming a big factor as well.
Some of the same trends hold true for this game as they did in Game Four. Boston has been a solid rebound team as it is 24-11 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. Getting the Celtics as underdogs is rare but effective as they are 11-5 ATS when getting points this season. The Cavaliers are 6-17 ATS in their last 23 games following a win against the spread. Facing teams with a winning road mark, Cleveland is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11. Play Boston Celtics 2.5 Units
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| Tampa Bay Rays vs. St Louis Cardinals (MLB) - 8:15 PM EDT |
Free Play |
| Play: Money Line: 100 St Louis Cardinals |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
Tampa Bay has been hot but this line is a little aggressive for the upstart Rays. Coming off a series win over the Yankees was huge but now it is letdown time, especially now that it is once again time to hit the road. As usual with this team, it is much better at home than on the road. This season, the Rays are 8-9 away from home and this follows records of 29-52, 20-61, 27-54, 29-52, 27-54 and 25-55. You get the picture. Until Tampa Bay can start winning on the road, it should never be a favorite or even close to it.
The Cardinals have gone through a bit of a struggle with only two wins in their last nine games but I still consider them the superior team here. St. Louis is 15-9 at home this season and the success has come from a combination of solid pitching and consistent hitting. The Cardinals have a team ERA of 3.31 at home including 2.92 from the starting rotation. The bullpen has been struggling of late so the starters are the key. As for the offense, St. Louis is hitting .285 at home, the 5th best home average in baseball.
Braden Looper looks to recover from two straight below average performances against the Rockies and Brewers. However, it is important to note that those two outings came on the road where his ERA is close to a run and a half higher than it is at home. Looper has a 3.67 ERA at home and that includes one blowup game against the Giants where he allowed seven runs in just three innings. He has allowed two runs or fewer in his other four home starts, posting a solid 1.50 ERA in those games.
Andy Sonnanstine started the season slow, got hot, but is now once again in a funk. He has allowed nine runs in his last two starts which followed three straight quality outings. Surprisingly, all five of those games resulted in Tampa Bay wins. The winning streak is impressive but it has more been coincidence than it has been of solid pitching. Only three of his eight starts have been on the road where his ERA is 4.43 for the year and 5.17 in his 15 career road outings. Play St. Louis Cardinals 1.5 Units
Fargo picked up another Premium Play Winner yesterday with Kansas City +100 over Detroit making it two straight! He will continue to ride the momentum into the weekend and it starts on Friday! Inter-League play begins today and Fargo is releasing his Top Play I.L. Game of the Week! Fargo is having a profitable 2008 and has won over 71 Units in baseball since July 2006!
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| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LAA Angels (MLB) - 10:05 PM EDT |
Premium Play |
| Play: Money Line: 117 Los Angeles Dodgers |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
**MLB TOP PLAY** I.L. Game of the Week It has been a streaky season for the Dodgers and they look to be heading into another one of the good streaks. After a 5-11 run, Los Angeles won 10 of 11 only to lose its next five games. It has now won two straight following a big victory over Ben Sheets yesterday and that makes it wins in seven of the last nine on the road. After scoring a total of 10 runs during that five-game losing streak, the Dodgers have plated 13 over the last two games.
The Angels have dropped two in a row and six of their last eight as the offense continues to struggle. They have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games including three straight. For the season, the Angels are hitting only .266 which is very substandard for an offense coming into the season with such high expectations. That average drops even more at home and is sitting at just .242 over the last 10 games. Normally a strength, the bullpen has been just the opposite, posting a 6.64 ERA at home.
Joe Saunders has been a pleasant surprise for the Angels this season, posting a 2.48 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. He is 6-1 while the Angels are 7-1 in his eight starts on the year. He is coming off his 5th quality start of the season but over his last tow starts, his command has been lacking. I don’t expect things to get better here as he is not only facing a strong offense but one that is killing lefties. The Dodgers are hitting .308 on the season including .316 on the road and are 10-3 against left-handed starters on the season.
The Dodgers counter with Hiroki Kuroda who has been solid all season sans one start. He has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts with five of those being quality outings. He has done his best work on the road as he has posted a 2.81 ERA and 1.17 ratio in four starts. Three of those were quality with the fourth missing out by just one-third of an inning. As mentioned, the Angels are struggling at the plate and they are hitting only .233 against righties over their last 10 games. Play Los Angeles Dodgers 2.5 Units
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View Previous Five Days' Picks
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All Leagues 32-28-1
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| PREMIUM PICKS |
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| Fargo’s **MLB TOP PLAY** Underdog Game of the Week
Matt Fargo is ready for a solid rebound on Saturday following two setbacks on Friday, both coming by just two runs. He has isolated one team that is an underdog that really has no business being an underdog and he is all over it! Premium Plays are on a modest 2-1 +4 Unit-run and this Underdog Game of the Week will add to it! A new streak starts Saturday so do not miss out!
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| Matt Fargo's NBA and NCAA Hoops Weekly Package
You will not find a better hoops handicapper than Matt Fargo! Since 2004, he has brought home $51,610 in the NBA and in college hoops, he hit 60 percent in 2004-2005, claiming the World Championship at the Professional Handicappers League and followed that up with a 56% performance the following year! Do not miss any of the action!
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| Fargo's Weekly Package of Winners
Get seven days of Matt Fargo's Winning Selections right here! Fargo isn't one of the best handicappers in the world for nothing - Consistent winning is the name of the game and Fargo has game!
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| Matt Fargo's 2008 MLB Package
The baseball countdown has begun and Matt Fargo is here to get an early jump on the season! If you bet baseball, Fargo is the man to make your money! He finished last season +31.5 Units and has profited +70.7 Units since July 1st, 2006! Get every Winner from day 1 through the final game of the World Series!
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| Matt Fargo's NBA and NCAA Hoops Season Package
You will not find a better hoops handicapper than Matt Fargo! Since 2004, he has brought home $51,610 in the NBA and in college hoops, he hit 60 percent in 2004-2005, claiming the World Championship at the Professional Handicappers League and followed that up with a 56% performance the following year! Get every hoops pick through the NBA Finals!
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Matt Fargo’s Diamond Preview |
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May 12, 2008 |
Matt Fargo’s Diamond Preview – A look at the upcoming week in baseball
Monday, May 12th
Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants 10:15 PM ET
Barry Zito makes his second start since returning to the rotation and he is still looking for his first win of the year. He is 0-7 but he is coming off a very solid performance last time out. The problem is not only him bu ...
read more |
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Matt Fargo’s Diamond Preview |
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May 4, 2008 |
Matt Fargo’s Diamond Preview – A look at the upcoming week in baseball
Monday, May 5th
Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers 7:05 PM ET
Boston took two of three against the Tigers in the first series meeting this year but this is not the same Detroit team. The Tigers are 13-8 since then and they are slowly climbing back into the American League Central. While Bost ...
read more |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) - May 17, 2008 7:05 PM EDT |
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| Play: Money Line: -107 Toronto Blue Jays Play Title: |
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Philadelphia took the first game of this series last night to make it two in a row but I don’t expect much more. The Phillies are 7-6 over their last 13 games and they remain inconsistent as they are just 2-5 in their last five games following a win and also 3-7 in their last 10 games after plating five runs or more in its last game. The bullpen is one of the best in baseball but the Phillies are getting an ERA of just 4.68 from their starters including a rugged 6.16 ERA over their last 10 games.
The Blue Jays had their four-game winning streak snapped last night as the pitching was hit hard for the first time in a while. Emergency starter David Purcey was hammered for eight runs in just three innings but now we get back to the regular rotation tonight. The offense has been hit or miss as it has scored three runs or fewer in seven of its last nine games but the Blue Jays will be able to get the bats going tonight against a struggling starter that continues to be overvalued.
That starter is Adam Eaton. Eaton started the season with three consecutive quality starts but it has been a struggle since then as he has posted a 6.46 ERA over his last five starts. The Phillies won three of those but all were by just a single run and those were the first three. Eaton has allowed just five hits in each of his last four outings but he has averaged only 4.2 innings per start. Another big issue has been control as he has walked eight batters over his last two starts.
Toronto goes with A.J. Burnett who is coming off a quality start, his third in his last four games. The Blue Jays gave him no run support so he was handed the loss. He has performed much better on the road this season with four of his five starts being quality outings. After walking 14 over a three-game stretch, he has issued only four bases on balls over his last two games so the control is showing a huge improvement. His track record against the Phillies is no good but all of that came two and three years ago. Play Toronto Blue Jays 1.5 Units
Matt Fargo is ready for a solid rebound on Saturday following two setbacks on Friday, both coming by just two runs. He has isolated one team that is an underdog that really has no business being an underdog and he is all over it! Premium Plays are on a modest 2-1 +4 Unit-run and this Underdog Game of the Week will add to it! A new streak starts Saturday so do not miss out!
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| Plays are released every morning for your benefit so you have the ability to shop around for the best lines possible. |
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| All plays are rated between 1 and 3 units. |
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