Arizona is on a 41-20 run their last 61 home games dating back to last season, including a 17-7 mark this year. They now send Dan Haren, one of baseball’s best, to the mound against a Detroit square that is nine games under .500. That makes this price look extremely short. Arizona’s Dan Haren has been especially strong in his new ballpark with a 4-0 record, 1.93 ERA and awesome 0.83 WHIP. Meanwhile, Jeremy Bonderman, like the team he pitches for, carries a big name but has been on a two-year slide, partially due to reoccurring elbow injuries. He brings an ugly 1.67 WHIP into tonight’s game and he will have to pitch far better than he has in recent memory against baseball's second highest scoring lineup. The disparity between starters is best indicated by their extreme strikeout/walk ratios as Haren has an excellent 41/10 ratio, while Bonderman has a negative 25/29 ratio for the season, including a 5/12 ratio on the road. This simply isn’t the right price for the much better team with the better pitcher at home tonight. Play DIAMONDBACKS (-) (action).

The Cubs are currently the best offensive team in baseball as they average 5.8 runs per game and bat .287 as a team. They have been even stronger at home this season where they average an incredible 6.9 runs per game and bat .318 with a fantastic .396 on-base percentage. Chicago should have continued offensive success today against the Pirates’ Tom Gorzelanny who has a weak 5.97 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his seven starts this season, including a miserable 6.58 ERA and 1.83 WHIP on the road. Pittsburgh should also have offensive success today as they are averaging a solid 5.3 runs per game and will be facing Chicago’s Sean Gallagher who was awful in his debut on Sunday when he allowed 4 runs in just over 4 innings of work. Overall, Gallagher has a terrible 6.48 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in his 3 appearances. Play OVER the total.

The Celtics have struggled on the road (0-5 SU/ATS) so far in the postseason, but this is a very short-term sample and Boston is still the best team in the league and more than capable on winning away from home. This was proven in the regular season when Boston held the best road record in the league (31-10 SU) and was a very profitable 28-13 ATS away from home. Boston still holds an extreme matchup advantage in this game as they are the best defensive team in the league and Cleveland is a below average offensive squad. Boston has held the Cavaliers to 89 points or less in four of the five playoff games for an average of just 86 points per game. Boston has also allowed just 41.8% FG in those five games. If you remove the one bad defensive game (Game 3) then the average is just 80.5 points per game and 39.0% FG allowed. Recent road results have now created excellent line value with Boston at an underdog price. My power ratings favor the Celtics outright by 3 points tonight, so they have a 65% chance of covering the current line. The wrong team is favored and you might consider putting your play on the money-line (+120) as the Celtics should win this game outright.

Play CELTICS (+).

Home teams have dominated the second round of the NBA playoffs at a record pace this season with a 20-1 SU record in all games so far. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in this series, with each win coming by 11, 10, 5, 8, and 7 points per game. This strong home court advantage should continue tonight as the Jazz are 41-5 SU (30-14 ATS) at the Delta Center this season, compared to just 19-28 SU (20-27 ATS) on the road. Utah has always had the strongest home court in the league as the thin air and altitude gives them a distinct advantage over their opponents. The Lakers’ Kobe Bryant is still battling a sore back and he will feel extra pressure to keep up with a powerful Utah offense that is averaging 108 points per game and shooting 51% FG at home this season. Play JAZZ (-). I would also lean towards the Under as an additional light opinion. The two games in Utah have been lower scoring in this series, averaging just 209½ points per game in regulation time, compared to the three games in Los Angeles which averaged 217½ points per game. This home/road difference has been most noticeable in the tempo of the games as my re-scoring pace model has averaged just 201½ at Utah, compared to 217½ at Los Angeles.

The Celtics are the best defensive team in the playoffs this season as they allow just 89.8 points per game and 41.8% from the field (NBA average is 100 ppg and 46% FG). Boston holds an extreme matchup advantage in this game as they are the best defensive team in the league and Cleveland is a below average offensive squad. Boston has held the Cavaliers to 89 points or less in four of the five playoff games for an average of just 86 points per game. Boston has also allowed just 41.8% FG in those five games. If you remove the one bad defensive game (Game 3) then the average is just 80.5 points per game and 39.0% FG allowed. These teams have now played seven games this season with full lineups as LeBron James and Kevin Garnett each missed separate games during the regular season. The seven games with regular lineups have gone 5-2 Under in regulation time, including 3-2 Under in the five playoff games. Those five playoff games have averaged just 170½ points per game with a median score of just 165 ppg. My re-scoring pace and percentage models have both averaged just 176 points, so we get line value tonight as this total has been inflated three full points from the line in Game 5. Play UNDER the total.