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Wunderdog Sports
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| Wunderdog Sports was started in 2001 by a guy that had a knack for picking NFL underdogs. The company now provides sports predictions to over 150,000 sports fans for every major U.S. sport every day. The Wunderdog has a statistics degree from one of the nation's top business schools (Kellogg at Northwestern). He's been handicapping sports for over 20 years. |
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| Wednesday, March 10, 2010 |
| ST John's vs. Marquette (NCAAB) - 2:30 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 125/-108 Under Play Title: ST John's vs. Marquette |
Win |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The last time these clubs met at the Garden the St. John's Red Storm extended Marquette into overtime before dropping a tough two point decision. Despite the overtime these teams ground out a defensive struggle that produced just 122 total points. I would expect a lot of the same in this one. St. John's has now played to a 34-16-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 51 Big East games. They have also played UNDER to a 17-8-1 mark vs teams over .600. The Golden Eagles enter here with five straight UNDERS in their last five in the role of a favorite. UNDER gets the call in this one.
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| Cal Irvine vs. Cal Poly S.L.O. (NCAAB) - 11:25 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 138.5/-108 Under Play Title: Cal Irvine vs. Cal Poly S.L.O. |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Anteaters played OT in their last game and managed 91 points, so this has moved the total here up. The fact is they reached even 80 just one time in their previous 17 games and on the season have topped the 70 mark just seven times in their last 22 games without the benefit of overtime, so clearly this is posted on the high side. They have played to just three totals all season of 140 plus, without overtime, with all three going UNDER. Cal Poly has been historically an UNDER team when the game venue moves to a neutral site, where they are 11-3 to the UNDER in their last 14. I'll play this one to stay UNDER the total.
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| Central Florida vs. SMU (NCAAB) - 9:30 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 123/-108 Under Play Title: Central Florida vs. SMU |
Win |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
Central Florida, aside from a crazy overtime game vs Marshall, has struggled down the stretch offensively. Their other 11 games show them averaging under 60ppg. These teams are evenly matched and even in the won-loss column, both are entering at 14-16. SMU has had its own struggles scoring points. The Mustangs had one shootout with Houston, but otherwise over their last ten they are also under 60 points a game. This one certainly looks to play in the 50s. These teams have combined to go UNDER in 21 of their last 27 C-USA games, and I don't see anything changing here. I'll go with the UNDER.
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| CS Northridge vs. CS Fullerton (NCAAB) - 9:00 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 145/-108 Under Play Title: CS Northridge vs. CS Fullerton |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The CS Fullerton Titans have played five of their last 12 games into overtime as they become college basketball's version of the cardiac kids. That has also inflated their total numbers on the high side. It has added 164 points to the last 12 game totals or close to 14 a game, and their 113-112 OT game with Northridge raises the stakes onto this total. Northridge has played to unreasonably high totals and when they have played to a total in the 140s or higher, with no overtime, seven of the last eight have stayed UNDER. This one is set beyond what is reasonable with a lot of value on the UNDER, which is my call here.
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| Seton Hall vs. Notre Dame (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 148.5/-108 Under Play Title: Seton Hall vs. Notre Dame |
Win |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Irish are 7-4 UNDER on the road this season, 11-7 UNDER in conference games and 4-0 UNDER in their last four games. THey have held their last four opponents to just 56.8 points per game. This Seton Hall offense will present a big challenge for Notre Dame but I think they will step up to it. The Pirates are 12-2 UNDER the past three seasons when coming off three straight wins. They are also 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games after scoring 75+ in three straight games. Notre Dame is 21-11 UNDER the past two seasons as a favorite. They are also 14-3 UNDER in all neutral-court games and 10-1 UNDER in March! I like this one to go UNDER the total.
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| Rice vs. Tulsa (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 129/-108 Under Play Title: Rice vs. Tulsa |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
It has been a long season for the Rice Owls with just eight wins, but not so unexpected. The Owls took a lot of losses from the offense and it has showed as this team struggles with long droughts on the offensive end, especially against a good defensive team like the Tulsa team they will face here. They managed just 58 in their only meeting this season. Tulsa has kept 13 teams in the 50s or worse and a lot of those teams are poor offensive teams like Rice. It has led to Tulsa playing UNDER to a 9-2-1 mark vs teams with a winning percentage of under .400. Rice has also played to a 37-15-1 mark to the UNDER vs teams with a winning percentage of over .600. I'll go UNDER in this one.
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| Air Force vs. Wyoming (NCAAB) - 5:00 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 119.5/-108 Under Play Title: Air Force vs. Wyoming |
Win |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
Air Force had its run, but they are back to being a below average team that plays a methodical offense. This is a team that has not gotten out of the 40s in six of their last seven games with 12 of their last 17 failing to reach the total. There isn't a single team on the Air Force div-1 schedule that has topped 75 points this year, so Wyoming getting in the 70s isn't a likely candidate here as they have averaged 60.5ppg in the two meetings this season. The Cowboys are also 14-3 to the UNDER following an ATS win. I like this one to stay UNDER the total.
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| Tulane vs. So Mississippi (NCAAB) - 3:30 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 118/-108 Under Play Title: Tulane vs. So Mississippi |
Win |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Green Wave have mustered just two wins in their final 13 games and one of those took overtime. This is a team that has absolutely no offense and has spent six games not able to break the 50 mark. They have also had 15 games on the season where they were in the 50s or less. Southern Miss has held an amazing 21 of their last 27 opponents to 60 or less, but have failed to get out of the 50s in 12 of their last 21 themselves. Points will be at a premium in this one. Southern Miss after a straight up win has seen nine of their last ten fail to top the total, and I like the UNDER in this one.
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| Vancouver Canucks vs. Phoenix Coyotes (NHL) - 10:05 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Total: 5.5/-113 Under Play Title: Vancouver Canucks vs. Phoenix Coyotes |
Loss |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The Vancouver Canucks are in the final game of a marathon 14 game road trip due to the Olympics being held in Vancouver. They have held up well coming out on the right side of eight of the 13 so far. They will be facing a Coyote team that has not been giving up much at home. The Coyotes have allowed just 16 goals in their last eight games, or 2 per contest and an even better one goal total in their last two at home. While the Canucks have been playing a lot of overs, they find themselves in a place that has shown otherwise. This will be their fourth game in six nights and the previous 16 in that situation has produced 12 UNDERS. The Coyotes have really played low after a win, as following their last 28 wins just four overs have occured in the 27 games! I'll play this one UNDER the total.
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| New Jersey Nets vs. Dallas Mavericks (NBA) - 8:35 PM EST |
Premium Play |
| Play: Point Spread: 11/-106 New Jersey Nets Play Title: New Jersey Nets vs. Dallas Mavericks |
Win |
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Click Here to View Play Analysis
The public is lining up on Dallas here as if they knew the final score, with over 80% backing Dallas minus the points. Yes, the Mavs have won 12 in a row, but guess what? The value has got to be on the other side at this point as the linesmakers shade the line. Where is the value? On a team like New Jersey - a team that has won just seven games all season. Despite their woes straight-up, this team has gone 12-7 ATS since late January including 3-0 in their last three. They have won seven straight ATS on the road! Let's compare the way these two defenses have been playing. Over their last six games, Dallas has allowed 104 points per game while New Jersey has allowed just 99. And here's the kicker: The Mavs are 1-12 ATS this season at home vs. losing teams. Dallas wins this, but I think by less than 11 points.
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Is Parity in the NFL Gone? |
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Oct 16, 2009 |
As you know if you've followed my NFL picks over the years, I am an underdog bettor in the NFL regular-season. I believe it's where the value lies long-term in the NFL. If you want to read more on why I feel that way, check out my NFL betting philosophy.
But underdogs aren't doing so hot so far this season. And big underdogs are really laying big eggs. While historically they have hit over 5 ...
read more |
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Bankroll Management - How Much to Bet |
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Aug 30, 2009 |
You are betting too much on each game! How can I say that without even knowing you? Because I've been doing this for a long time and have spent a lot of time understanding money management. 99% of sports bettors are betting too much. Think not? Think again.
Would you "bet" 25% of your entire retirement account on a single stock that had a 40% chance of going to $0 tomorrow? Of course not. Then ...
read more |
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| You can count on all of my picks to be released daily by 2 PM (EST). All of my football picks are released each Thursday, also by 2 PM (EST). |
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| I rate each play on a system of "units," from 1-5. |
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| Bet around 2-3% of your bankroll on average and don't ever bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given game on which you have even or close to even odds. A good rule of thumb is one "unit" should equal 1% of your entire bankroll. A $10,000 bankroll would give you $100 per unit, so a 3-unit play would be a $300 bet. |
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